I think The Social Network has an absolute lock on Best Picture. The fact that the DGAs and SGAs won against it don't mean much; King's Speech is the picture presently in theaters, and they want to give it a box office lift. (And they were successful in doing so) That's irrelevant, though; a lot of great performances were put forth by actors and actresses that didn't have great careers, and Osmont was a prime example. Besides, who is to say that the same won't happen to Haley Steinfeld, as you mention at the end of your post? I hope it won't, but it's certainly in play. I think it was a more complex role than that, and there were a lot of subtle touches to the performance which weren't present in Steinfeld's "smart, assertive teenage girl" role.