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The 83rd Academy Awards

Discussion in 'Pop Culture Board' started by Beefy Phil, Jan 7, 2011.

  1. Beefy Phil

    Beefy Phil
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    Nominations are announced on January 25th, but that shouldn't stop us from posting our predictions a few weeks in advance. Who will take home the stupid little golden man?

    This discussion has one overriding rule: no hijacking the thread with retarded, pedantic ramblings about the validity, or lack thereof, of other people's cinematic preferences. You know who you are. Keep it reasonable.

    Focus: OSCAR SEASON. GO.
     
  2. ssycko

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    I honestly have no idea who deserves Best Picture or Best Director. Nothing stands out as a clear favorite. I feel like Black Swan might win Best Director, but I'm not sure if it deserves it. Honestly, the only movie I think deserves Best Picture is Toy Story 3, and that probably isn't going to happen.
     
  3. KIMaster

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    I always do great predicting the Academy Awards after nominations are out, for one very simple reason; I never, ever, not even for one stinking second, consider the quality of the performances or films under discussion.

    I consider economics, I consider politics, but I never think about who actually deserves the pointless fucking awards. It used to be a big deal even 20+ years ago for movies and how much money they would make, but not as much anymore.

    I bet someone in real life money last year that Avatar would not win for either Best Director or Best Picture and it would go to "The Hurt Locker" for both...and I hadn't even watched the second movie yet.

    Anyways, obvious nominations go to

    Inception
    True Grit
    The Social Network
    The Town
    Toy Story 3
    Black Swan (I think I just threw up in my mouth a little)
    The Fighter

    and probably a few for

    The King's Speech
    127 Hours
    Secretariat
    Winter's Bone (although maybe this is too small of an indie picture too far back in the year, like "Moon" was last year)

    Anything that I'm missing that is likely to get a nom?
     
  4. Nom Chompsky

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    The Kids are All Right grabbed a PGA nomination, which means it might sneak onto the list of Best Pictures. The WGA tabbed Phillip Morris and some other movie I'm forgetting now, so those could also show up on a couple lists.

    What do you guys think about Justin Timberlake's chance to get a nod for best supporting actor? I have a bet going on the results, and I want to know if I should be confident that it'll come through.
     
  5. KIMaster

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    Good call on both. I forget about those pictures; "The Kids are All Right" is going to get nominations for economic as well as political reasons, and ditto for "I Love You Phillip Morris", although it's a way smaller indie picture that will end up doing much better internationally than in the US.

    You already made the bet, haven't you? Don't second-guess yourself.

    But yes, I think your chances of winning are high. Again, haven't seen the film, just considering the other factors involved.
     
  6. Nom Chompsky

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    To be clear, I bet that he would NOT get a nomination. The bet is only a dinner, but the person I bet with is a vegetarian. So if that singing fuck gets nominated, I have to pay not to eat meat. For two people.

    I mean, I could try to wheedle for a non-vegetarian restaurant because in my experience the vegetarian food at regular restaurants is better than the food at vegetarian restaurants, but the winner gets to choose.

    I guess I could sneak some meat in my pockets. Or wear a Gaga-style meat dress and sit near the heating vent.

    I haven't seen it, but what was wrong with The Black Swan? I've heard nothing but good things.
     
  7. KIMaster

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    Well then! I think your friend is probably going to win a dinner!

    Honestly, I don't know; I have never bet on who would get the nominations, only the winners. I'm good at the latter, but have little idea about the former. I'm just going from the simplest level of reasoning here; namely, that they want to nominate a major, popular celebrity that will draw crowd and buzz to the event.

    What was your reasoning for him not getting a nomination?

    Here was my review.

    It's funny; I have talked to six different friends of mine about Black Swan after first seeing it myself, and they all hated it. The two that had watched "Perfect Blue" disliked it much worse than I did. One of them, who knows way more about films than I do, informed me that Aronofsky is apparently a huge fan of that picture, and bought its US rights.

    Too bad he doesn't have the ability of Satoshi Kon (RIP). (Also, kind of amusing that "Inception" was inspired (according to Nolan) by Kon's "Paprika", among pictures this year)
     
  8. Kubla Kahn

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    I don't know about political or economic reasons but I wasnt impressed by Justin Timberlake at all in The Social Network. His character wasn't anything but average. Eisenberg did much better as the self centered asshole totally redeemed himself as far as the Michael Cera shtick goes.
     
  9. Sam N

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    I'm going to go ahead and back you up on this. If Timberlake gets a nomination, it will have absolutely nothing to do with his performance in the movie. It was... well, basically a nothing depiction of a character who didn't even have anything depth anyway. Hell, it wasn't even as good as some of his previous roles, Southland Tales and Black Snake Moan both jumping to mind (not that they were great or anything either).

    I could see whoever the actor that played Eduardo in The Social Network getting one long before Timberlake.
     
  10. Nom Chompsky

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    Andrew Garfield, his name is.

    My reasoning was basically that I saw the movie and didn't think JT deserved a nomination. Don't get me wrong, he was good, but nothing revelatory.

    For what it's worth, it was Garfield and not Timberlake who got a GG nomination. And he's going to be Spiderman soon enough, so maybe he needs the push more than the non-actor.
     
  11. TX.

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    I thought it was alright. I'm definitely glad I saw it in the theater, but I probably won't own the DVD. I think the problem is that its billing itself as a "psychosexual thriller", but it's more of a coming-of-age/cautionary story about a girl who lets her quest for perfection consume her.
     
  12. ssycko

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  13. AKSB

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    I've seen a good number of the buzzed about films this year, and it's a lazy Saturday, so here are my thoughts:

    Best Picture
    I'd say that whatever wins Best Picture this year will be the weakest winner in the last decade. There were a lot of very good movies, but not many great ones. My pick for best movie this year is Inception, but there's a pretty small chance it wins the Oscar. The Social Network has been cleaning up at the critics awards, so it looks like it's the front runner for now. The King's Speech also has been getting good buzz, but it needs to start picking up some momentum if it's going to win.
    Should: Inception
    Will: The Social Network

    Best Director
    Honestly, I think Christopher Nolan should win this one. Inception was his masterpiece and he was the real star of the movie. It's worth noting that usually Best Director and Best Picture usually go hand in hand, but there are a couple exceptions every decade (particularly in weak years), and I think this year is one. Yes David Fincher did a good job also, but was the directing primarily what made The Social Network good? I'd say no. I guess Darren Afronsky stands a chance in this one too -- I thought Black Swan was extremely well done.
    Should: Nolan
    Will: Nolan/Fincher (50/50)

    Best Actor
    Colin Firth is getting some pretty rave reviews for his performance in The King's Speech, but I still haven't seen it, so I can't comment definitively. Nothing else really stood out this year to me. Jeff Bridges was great, but not transcendent, and while Jesse Eisenberg was very good, I don't think it was a strong enough performance to warrant a win. I've also heard good things about James Franco, but I haven't seen 127 Hours.
    Should: ?
    Will: Firth

    Best Actress
    This is Natalie Portman's award. She absolutely nailed it in Black Swan. I'd say she's the biggest lock in any category.
    Should: Portman
    Will: Portman

    Best Supporting Actor
    Christian Bale was barely recognizable in The Fighter and absolutely dominated that movie. Geoffrey Rush is getting some buzz for The King's Speech, but it won't be enough. By the way, if Matt Damon and gets nominated for True Grit, I'm going to shoot someone. No idea why anyone thought he was a strong point of that movie.
    Should: Bale
    Will: Bale

    Best Supporting Actress
    If Hailee Stenfeild gets nominated in this category for True Grit (which would be a travesty if she were, because she basically carried that movie), she'll win. Other than that, I think both females in The Fighter (Melissa Leo and Amy Adams) were very good, but neither were particularly great (and were both dominated by Bale's aforementioned performance).
    Should: ?
    Will: Steinfeld

    Best Score
    I always pay attention to the music in movies, so this is one of my favorite categories. The three that stood out to me this year were Daft Punk's work in Tron (by far the strongest part of the movie), Trent Reznor's score for The Social Network, and Hans Zimmer's score for Inception.
    Should: Daft Punk
    Will: Trent Reznor

    And just for fun, my crack at the 10 nominees for Best Picture:
    Inception
    The Social Network
    The King's Speech
    Toy Story 3
    Black Swan
    The Fighter
    127 Hours
    True Grit
    The Kids Are Alright
    Winter's Bone
     
  14. KIMaster

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    Good analysis by AKSB; way to pick up the slack for El Tee's monstrously long Oscar reviews!

    There is absolutely no way she "should" get this award. Here character was wafer-thin. I wouldn't even call her two-dimensional; one-dimensional is stretching it. She basically had to play "scared, disoriented, innocent young girl", the same role as in any number of cheap horror films. It was a little harder because of the latter part of the film, but not by much.

    Portman herself was fine, but the character was such a complete nothing.

    That being said...I would bet a ton of money that she will win this award. Accurate call.

    Did you mean to write that it would be a travesty if she weren't nominated? Or do you think her performance is not worthy of consideration?

    Inception was a popcorn blockbuster film. It was probably the most perfect, thrilling popcorn blockbuster I have ever seen, but a popcorn blockbuster nonetheless. Pure entertainment films are a completely different category than those that aspire to "art". They shouldn't even be judged against one another.

    I can't hate on the Oscars just because they prefer one genre to the other. That's just their criteria, so I wouldn't say Inception "should" win a damn thing.

    Anyways, the thing with "The Social Network" is that I checked online, and their DVD is released on January 11th. Will it get that much of a bump from the Oscars? Nominations sure, and probably a few wins, but I wouldn't call it a mortal lock.

    The past three Best Picture winners (which, by the way, I thought were all high masterpieces and absolutely deserved it...although that is a coincidence/aberration/besides the point) were all still playing a limited amount in theaters when they won the Oscar, and got a big DVD bump. (And "The Hurt Locker" had other reasons going for it, since it was directed by a woman)

    Then again, what are the alternatives? Perhaps the awful, undeserving "Black Swan"? It's a strong possibility. I would bet on it being between those two.
     
  15. AKSB

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    I meant to say that she shouldn't be nominated for Best Supporting Actress, she should be nominated for Best Actress. There was nothing supporting about Maddie Ross in True Grit -- she was the main character in the movie.

    If she does end up getting nominated in the correct field (which I have a sneaking suspicion won't happen), I'd say she's still one of the front runners.
     
  16. KIMaster

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    That's an interesting observation; why do you think she is more likely to get nominated for Supporting Actress? Are there any other important female roles in "True Grit" besides her's?
     
  17. audreymonroe

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    I'm not surprised this one hasn't been brought up yet since it's essentially a chick-flick, but I'm going to go ahead and throw out Blue Valentine as a nomination for Best Picture, Best Actor, and Best Actress. I haven't seen it yet, but the trailer alone makes me cry and you can't even hear anything except for Ryan Gosling singing, and I've been reading great reviews. It's maybe one of 3 movies this year that I have been eagerly awaiting its release.

    I think that Jesse Eisenberg deserves a nomination for Best Actor. He was eerily believable in that role and I think he nailed the character perfectly. I also agree that I don't think JT deserves a nomination for Best Supporting, but he'll probably be nominated for funsies.

    I'm not going to make any guesses, but I'm curious to see if Lena Dunham gets a nomination for Best Director and/or writer for Tiny Furniture.

    I'm assuming I'll get shit for this, but I don't think Inception deserves any nominations. It was a fun popcorn flick to me, and if you actually attempt to criticize it, it's chock full of plot holes and flaws. I just considered it another action movie. I probably wouldn't have seen it if it wasn't by Christopher Nolan, who is one of my favorite directors, and because I was tired of being left out of the loop with memes (seriously). He's great, but I don't think he deserves a nod for this one.

    I think Annette Benning or Julianne Moore is going to win for Best Actress, and a lot of it will have to do with politics. I'm seeing Black Swan next week, though, so maybe I'll change my mind for Portman. Although, again, it's a thriller action flick right? It seems weird it would get so much Oscar buzz...but we'll see I guess.
     
  18. Crown Royal

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    Best Picture-

    The King's Speech- it really is a good movie, if you give it a try.
    Black Swan
    The Social Network
    The Town
    Inception
     
  19. ssycko

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    She wasn't the main character in that movie, same way that Andy in Shawshank Redemption wasn't the main character. Nothing happens to her, nothing changes her, she has no arc. Wonderful performance, great actress, but the movie was about Jeff Bridges.
     
  20. KIMaster

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    Solid reasoning, but in this case, my feeling is that it's not as novel anymore. Lots and lots of gay characters have won awards already; it's not as powerful a reason as it once was. From an economic perspective, the film gets no boost, either, and it won't make either actress a more bankable star than they already are. (Although the latter is an irrelevant, antiquated notion anyways, as Tucker accurately described, among others)