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Predictions for the year 2100

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by Obviously5Believer, Feb 17, 2010.

  1. DrFrylock

    DrFrylock
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    The White

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    The hottest film will be a shot-for-shot remake of Star Wars. It will be released in Pana360-3D for motion theaters with Scentio[TM] technology. The Pana360-3D technology will let the viewer look all around them and see what's going on in the movie in glorious 3D, as if they are standing aside the characters. Motion theaters arrived around 2090, turning the entire theater into a motion simulator ride. Through a partnership with Scentio[TM], the age-old concept of Smell-O-Vision is brought back to the theater but with a classier name.

    The actors will be CG recreations of the original actors, indistinguishable from real people. To preserve authenticity, the original vocal tracks from 1977 will be used. However, the actors' performances will all be painstakingly recreated in millimeter-exact motion capture by stand-ins on a virtual set.

    People will still be carrying a single handheld device, which will be a phone, pocket computer with Internet access, video playback device, micro-projector, and so on. It will be jammed with sensors recording and broadcasting everything you do and everywhere you go to your social network. Only adults over 30 worry about "privacy," everyone under 30 broadcasts everything. This creates many new forms of drama in people's lives, but this just replaces previous kinds of drama, and so it's kind of a wash. The battery in this all-in-one device will still only last 6-8 hours on a full charge, but it will charge in only a few minutes.

    One monthly bill, paid by nearly everybody, provides "all-you-can-eat" access to the media of history: every movie, song, book, and so on. The latest creations are still made available at a premium.

    Everyone in the first world has their genome sequenced and in a personal file. Every year, new algorithms are released that can tell you something new about yourself based on your genome. Unfortunately, the outputs are all just percentages: 70% chance of this disease, 30% chance of this problem, etc. Computers can make similar predictions for children of couples who submit both of their genomes. We will find out that many chronic and mysterious diseases have things like prions involved, but we still won't be able to do anything about it. We will be able to solve a few interesting medical problems by growing replacement tissue for you, but only simple structures (bones, muscles, skin, corneas) and not complex structures like organs. We will have a better understanding of how the brain works but we will retain only the crudest ability to manipulate it. The frontier of the nervous system will still be mostly inaccessible to medicine.

    Nobody can remember the last war between nations. War now exists between dogmas and ideologies which span national boundaries and, sometimes, cultural groups. War is person-to-person, not organization-to-organization. Asymmetric conflict is the norm, and is widespread. The U.S. and Canada are still surprisingly peaceful largely due to the oceans on either side.

    The number one problem in the first world is laziness and complacence. Individual productivity in the first world has been on a slight but steady decline for ~50 years for the first time in recorded history: the productivity gains from technology are outpaced by the productivity sink of laziness. Things start to decay very slowly.

    In a possibly related trend, large swaths of the suburban and urban United States are in desperate need of urban renewal. The British sympathize: they have been through an era where their country was dominated by 100-year-old buildings that were only built to last 25. The nation has reached the point where it has accumulated far more disposable infrastructure than it can maintain. In a few dozen areas isolated from major urban centers, entire small towns have been effectively abandoned and have become eerie, decrepit 21st-century ghost towns. Nature and ne'er-do-wells populate them instead.

    Due to the inability of large groups of people to act responsibly with money and resources, the effective income tax rate in the U.S. is about 60%, with a sales tax in most metropolitan areas of 20-22%. In "socialist" countries, it's 75% income tax. The U.S. has been on the brink of hyperinflation for many years.

    The biggest and fastest-growing cultural divide in the first world is between intellectuals and anti-intellectuals. The intellectuals are vastly outnumbered but maintain balance since they concentrate political and social power and, often, wealth among themselves. However, the groups have less concern for each other than ever and like to pretend the other does not exist. This causes increasing subdivisions within formerly united cultural and racial groups.

    Secularism (agnosticism, atheism, and just-don't-care-ism) has made a strong cultural foothold, especially among the intellectuals but will never fully cross the cultural divide to the anti-intellectuals. The cultural trappings of religion (e.g., celebrating Christmas) will still be strong across both groups.

    Big Commerce has homogenized the first world. The stores available in one place are an exact mirror of the stores in another, throughout the entire country. Multimedia, video advertising is everywhere. Nearly every flat surface has a screen on it. Local culture and traditions are waning. Northern Africa is the manufacturing capital of the world. On a positive note, the diversity and quality of fast food have grown considerably.

    Men have still not set foot on Mars, and will not in the foreseeable future. China, India, and Japan will have started but aborted Moon programs. No nation can justify the expense of travel into deep space; there is not enough competition between nations to drive it. However, commercial space travel to near-Earth orbit will be available for the equivalent of about one year's salary, say $40,000-$60,000 in 2010 dollars. Accidents will be rare, but not quite as rare as plane crashes.

    Electricity is the overwhelmingly dominant form of energy to produce, transfer, and consume. Oil, gas, coal, and other fuels are still burned, primarily to generate electricity. Solar power provides a bigger fraction of world energy than it does now, but has not increased by more than an order of magnitude. Tidal power provides a measurable fraction as well. Wind and hydroelectric power sources remain at or near 2010 levels.

    Aquaculture will become nearly as important as agriculture.

    People will regularly maintain vital careers well into their 70s, but the last 2-5 years of life will suck more than ever.

    None of the following will (provably) exist: nanobots, artificial intelligence, teleportation, robots in a domestic environment, intelligent life outside Earth, and the other dimensions predicted by String Theory. Although String Theory may turn out to be a better predictor than traditional models, it will have no practically-useful outcomes (e.g., atom bombs). On the upside, there will be nearly unanimous scientific consensus that at least microbial life is or was fairly common throughout the parts of the solar system we have explored.

    People will still argue like idiots on the Internet.