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Oscars 2017

Discussion in 'Pop Culture Board' started by audreymonroe, Jan 22, 2017.

  1. audreymonroe

    audreymonroe
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    The most powerful cervix... in the world...

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    So, not only have the nominations taken a crazily long time to come out, but we also still haven't started the annual thread of our predictions.

    Here are my guesses:

    Best Picture
    La La Land
    Moonlight
    Manchester By the Sea
    20th Century Women
    Jackie
    Fences

    Will Win: La La Land
    Should Win: Moonlight

    I absolutely loved La La Land and thought it was such a great movie experience, but I think Moonlight is actually a better movie. I think La La might win more awards than it should because of the Academy loving movies about movies.

    Best Director
    Damien Chazelle - La La Land
    Barry Jenkins - Moonlight
    Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester
    Mike Mills - 20th Century Women
    Denzel Washington - Fences

    Will Win: La La Land
    Should Win: La La Land

    I loooooooved the directing of Moonlight and 20th Century Women too, but this is where La La really deserves to shine.

    Best Actor in a Lead Role
    Ryan Gosling - La La Land
    not sure which one would get the Moonlight nod
    Casey Affleck - Manchester
    Andrew Garfield - Hacksaw Ridge
    Denzel Washington - Fences

    Will Win: One of the Moonlight guys maybe?
    Should Win: Probably one of the Moonlight guys

    I'm not really sure about this one. I love Ryan, but don't think he was that great of an actor in the La La, but I think he could sneak in there in the same way Jennifer Lawrence does for the same reasons. I kept switching Andrew Garfield and the guy from Nocturnal Animals who won the Golden Globe in and out. I've heard Andrew was really good, but that other guy came out of nowhere at the Globes, so, maybe that's a sign. I also would, personally, put Colin Farrell in for The Lobster, but I think maybe the movie as a whole will be looked over at the awards.

    Best Actress in a Lead Role
    Emma Stone - La La Land
    Isabelle Huppert - Elle
    Natalie Portman - Jackie
    Viola Davis - Fences
    Michelle Williams - Manchester by the Sea

    Will Win: Isabelle Huppert
    Should Win: Isabelle Huppert

    I think this will be one of the toughest categories. There were a lot of great female roles last year.

    Best Actor in a Supporting Role
    You know, I don't really have guesses for this category. I looked at the Globes nominations and I thought three of those were leads. The others, or others I can think of were thoroughly meh. The best I can come up with is one of the Moonlight guys, and I'll do my longhot of John C Reilly in The Lobster.

    Best Actress in a Supporting Role
    I see that again a lot of women I considered leads were listed as supporting at the Globes, but:
    Octavia Spencer - Hidden Figures
    Greta Gerwig - 20th Century Women
    Angeliki Papouila - The Lobster
    Naomie Harris - Moonlight

    I'm clearly confused about leads and supporting roles so that list is more of a wishlist than an actual prediction. If Viola Davis is supposed to be considered Supporting then she'll be nominated here instead and win. Angeliki's performance is the one that stuck with me the most, though. (Although, to be fair, I haven't seen Fences.)

    Best Original Screenplay
    La La Land
    20th Century Women
    The Lobster
    Manchester By the Sea
    Hell or High Water

    Will Win: Manchester By the Sea
    Should Win: The Lobster

    I'm not totally confident in the Manchester prediction, it might actually go to La La. But I am very confident in my should win for The Lobster. One of the most original movies I've ever seen, and it stuck with me for daaaays. I still think about it.

    Best Adapted Screenplay
    Moonlight
    Fences
    Arrival
    Hidden Figures
    Nocturnal Animals

    Will Win: Moonlight
    Should Win: Moonlight

    Best Cinematography
    Moonlight
    La La Land
    Arrival

    I can't come up with 5 and there really isn't a point because Moonlight and La La will be duking it out for this one. I'm not really sure if I can pick which one will or should win either.

    Best Costume Design
    La La Land
    Jackie
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
    Florence Jenkins

    I know I'm the only one here who cares about this but Jackie should win this. La La still might, though, and it would also be deserved.

    Best Documentary
    13th
    The Hunting Ground
    Weiner
    I Am Not Your Negro
    Whatever the O.J one was called

    Will Win: 13th
    Should Win: 13th
     
  2. Rush-O-Matic

    Rush-O-Matic
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    Here's the actual list:
    http://oscar.go.com/news/nominations/oscar-nominations-2017-view-the-complete-list-of-nominees

    BEST PICTURE

    Arrival
    Fences
    Hacksaw Ridge
    Hell or High Water
    Hidden Figures
    La La Land
    Lion
    Manchester by the Sea
    Moonlight
    =============================
    ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE

    Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
    Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
    Ryan Gosling, La La Land
    Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
    Denzel Washington, Fences
    =============================
    ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE

    Isabelle Huppert, Elle
    Ruth Negga, Loving
    Natalie Portman, Jackie
    Emma Stone, La La Land
    Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
    =============================
    ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

    Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
    Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
    Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
    Dev Patel, Lion
    Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
    =============================
    ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

    Viola Davis, Fences
    Naomie Harris, Moonlight
    Nicole Kidman, Lion
    Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
    Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
    =============================
    ANIMATED FEATURE FILM

    Kubo and the Two Strings
    Moana
    My Life as a Zucchini
    The Red Turtle
    Zootopia
    =============================
    CINEMATOGRAPHY

    Arrival
    La La Land
    Lion
    Moonlight
    Silence
    =============================
    COSTUME DESIGN

    Allied
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
    Florence Foster Jenkins
    Jackie
    La La Land
    =============================
    DIRECTING

    Arrival
    Hacksaw Ridge
    La La Land
    Manchester by the Sea
    Moonlight
    =============================
    DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)

    Fire at Sea
    I Am Not Your Negro
    Life, Animated
    O.J.: Made in America
    13th
    =============================
    DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)

    Extremis
    4.1 Miles
    Joe’s Violin
    Watani: My Homeland
    The White Helmets
    =============================
    FILM EDITING

    Arrival
    Hacksaw Ridge
    Hell or High Water
    La La Land
    Moonlight
    =============================
    FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

    Land of Mine
    A Man Called Ove
    The Salesman
    Tanna
    Toni Erdmann
    =============================
    MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

    A Man Called Ove
    Star Trek Beyond
    Suicide Squad
    =============================
    MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)

    Jackie
    La La Land
    Lion
    Moonlight
    Passengers
    =============================
    MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)

    "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)" from La La Land
    Music by Justin Hurwitz; Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul

    "Can’t Stop The Feeling" from Trolls
    Music and Lyric by Justin Timberlake, Max Martin and Karl Johan Schuster

    "City Of Stars" from La La Land
    Music by Justin Hurwitz; Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul

    "The Empty Chair" from Jim: The James Foley Story
    Music and Lyric by J. Ralph and Sting

    "How Far I’ll Go" from Moana
    Music and Lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda
    =============================
    PRODUCTION DESIGN

    Arrival
    Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
    Hail, Caesar!
    La La Land
    Passengers
    =============================
    SHORT FILM (ANIMATED)

    Blind Vaysha
    Borrowed Time
    Pear Cider and Cigarettes
    Pearl
    Piper
    =============================
    SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION)

    Ennemis Intérieurs
    La Femme et le TGV
    Silent Nights
    Sing
    Timecode
    =============================
    SOUND EDITING

    Arrival
    Deepwater Horizon
    Hacksaw Ridge
    La La Land
    Sully
    =============================
    SOUND MIXING

    Arrival
    Hacksaw Ridge
    La La Land
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
    13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
    =============================
    VISUAL EFFECTS

    Deepwater Horizon
    Doctor Strange
    The Jungle Book
    Kubo and the Two Strings
    Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
    =============================
    WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)

    Arrival
    Fences
    Hidden Figures
    Lion
    Moonlight
    =============================
    WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)

    Hell or High Water
    La La Land
    The Lobster
    Manchester by the Sea
    20th Century Women
     
  3. Crown Royal

    Crown Royal
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    I don't have my award picks yet, but Moonlight has my vote for best movie of the year. It's a spellbinding film, check it out.
     
  4. El Tee

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    Life has conspired to keep me from seeing even half of the nominees this year. I'll be watching this year's awards mostly unawares.

    That said, here are a few thoughts:

    - Rumor has it Viola Davis may be facing a backlash because she's in the running for Best Supporting Actress for what most (probably all) voters would consider a Best Actress lead role, and that her (or her producers') attempt to avoid the heavy hitters and compete in a less packed category will result in the Academy giving the statue to someone else. Don't buy that shit for a minute. That happens literally every year, and in fact Alicia Vikander won that Oscar doing the exact same thing just last year. There are no hard and fast rules over what constitutes the difference between a Lead or Supporting role, and the Academy isn't going to make one up this year. If she gave the best performance of the bunch - and by all accounts she did - then she'll go home with the award. But what do I know? I didn't see Hidden Fences anyway.

    - It's not wise to vote against the pop star in the Best Original Song category in any year, much less one in which the song in question is way catchier than the songs from the Best Picture favorite which is a musical, to boot. However, I'd put all my money on Justin Timberlake winning this Oscar for one even more important reason: he may be the only name on the shortlist to host future shows and the only person in the world who can guarantee winning ratings without knowing what the slate of nominated films will be. Making him a full-fledged member of the club seems like a small price to pay for his services.

    - I didn't see all of the Best Actress performances, but I did see La La Land and Florence Foster Jenkins. I'll say this about Emma Stone: within the next decade, she will win an Oscar along with Michelle Williams, Amy Adams, and J-Law (again). They're all on the Kate Winslet lay-away awards plan. But, if Hollywood really wants to make a political statement without being to obvious about it...Meryl Streep kicked Stone's ass in a head-to-head matchup. But that's not entirely fair: Streep is the GOAT, and she's better than every living actress already, so giving her a fourth title and the chance to slam Trump before an even bigger audience might be too tempting to pass up. La La Land will take home the grand prize anyway (sorry, Moonlight, which I haven't seen but don't need to), and Stone will get hers soon enough.
     
    #4 El Tee, Feb 19, 2017
    Last edited: Feb 19, 2017
  5. Crown Royal

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    Unless the entire Academy is gay, Moonlight will win for Best Picture. That being said, my pick to win Best Picture is La La Land. Because for some fucking reason musicals win and fuck musicals.

    Natalie Portman will be drunk, abusive and vulgar in every conversation.

    When Octavia Spencer collects her award on stage she will do a one-arm spinning handstand.

    The camera will show Jack Nicholson approx. 6743 times. You must drink every time it does this.

    Sean Penn will say something directly into a live microphone that once again proves he's a huge asshole.
     
  6. Rush-O-Matic

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    Viola Davis in Fences battling Octavia Spencer in Hidden Figures. I think Spencer wins.
     
  7. Rush-O-Matic

    Rush-O-Matic
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    Well, I got that wrong.

    But, not as wrong as Faye Dunaway and Price Waterhouse Coopers amirite? Ha.

    ETA: And, way to sell out your co-presenter, Warren Beatty.
     
  8. Aetius

    Aetius
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    Of all the Oscar predictions I saw, predicting that a 9 months pregnant woman not even in attendance would be a drunken mess might be the most wrong.
     
  9. Juice

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    Woosh.
     
  10. Aetius

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    You're telling me this isn't a 100% viable prediction?
     
  11. Juice

    Juice
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    I have no doubt that Sean Penn is an asshole. But is Natalie Portman a raging drunk? If so, I had no idea. She always seemed so demure.
     
  12. Rush-O-Matic

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    I think the raging drunks were the accountants. I wonder who got fired after PwC screwed up the envelopes. So, they have duplicate sets of award envelopes on each side of the stage, so the presenters can come from either way? If so, I think I'm more surprised this has never happened before, rather than that it happened last night. And, I know it was live TV, and caught him totally off guard; but, why didn't Warrant Beatty just turn to one of the producers and say, "I don't think this is right," instead of giving up and passing it to Faye Dunaway? Surely, they have a guy . . . like, hey, if you pick up a statuette and the head falls off, we have replacements over here. Or, if you open the envelope and a streaker runs on stage to steal it, look over here. Something.
     
  13. Juice

    Juice
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    I'm guessing nobody will get fired unless they deem it damage to the firm brand. Sounds like one of the two partners made the screw up, and accounting firm partners usually only get fired if they break the law (Enron, etc.) or if they don't generate business.
     
  14. Nettdata

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    It boggles my mind how people even think that this would warrant being fired over.

    Mind you, less and less people are watching, so maybe this is their idea of a "wardrobe malfunction" to try and drum up some bullshit drama and get some interest back.
     
  15. El Tee

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    Yeah, the "Hidden Fences" thing was a joke from the Golden Globes, demonstrating that even people in Hollywood hadn't seen the movies and didn't know the difference.

    I don't know about you guys, but the Kimmel v Damon gag never gets old. I thought the unsuspecting tour group was brilliant, too.
     
  16. El Tee

    El Tee
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    If I had to guess, I'd bet that one of the cases had two Best Actress envelopes and one had two Best Picture envelopes and no one noticed until it was too late. Simple, delightfully entertaining, human error.
     
  17. Aetius

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    Playing him off when he was presenting was amazing.

    And Damon just sticking his leg out and tripping Kimmel was so delightfully slapstick and low brow.
     
  18. Crown Royal

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    They had streakers back in the day, perhaps a firebombing or live sex show would do the trick.

    If this was a stunt, it might work. It was all the rage today in the news or conversation, and I'm sure people will tune in next year to see which millionaire shits the bed this time.
     
  19. Crown Royal

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    If people weren't in on it, you'd think its for real the way Damon sells it. He is so good at playing the unhinged, bullied kid in this bit.
     
  20. Rush-O-Matic

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    Not fired. Just won't ever work the Oscars again. One of the accountants responsible tweeted a photo of Emma Stone during the event, got distracted, and handed Beatty the wrong envelope. Oops. Then, they didn't follow their own protocol in place, and that's why it took so long to correct the error. PWC continued relationship with the Academy is under review.
    http://www.usatoday.com/story/life/...oopers-accountants-next-year-oscars/98598564/