So, not only have the nominations taken a crazily long time to come out, but we also still haven't started the annual thread of our predictions. Here are my guesses: Best Picture La La Land Moonlight Manchester By the Sea 20th Century Women Jackie Fences Will Win: La La Land Should Win: Moonlight I absolutely loved La La Land and thought it was such a great movie experience, but I think Moonlight is actually a better movie. I think La La might win more awards than it should because of the Academy loving movies about movies. Best Director Damien Chazelle - La La Land Barry Jenkins - Moonlight Kenneth Lonergan - Manchester Mike Mills - 20th Century Women Denzel Washington - Fences Will Win: La La Land Should Win: La La Land I loooooooved the directing of Moonlight and 20th Century Women too, but this is where La La really deserves to shine. Best Actor in a Lead Role Ryan Gosling - La La Land not sure which one would get the Moonlight nod Casey Affleck - Manchester Andrew Garfield - Hacksaw Ridge Denzel Washington - Fences Will Win: One of the Moonlight guys maybe? Should Win: Probably one of the Moonlight guys I'm not really sure about this one. I love Ryan, but don't think he was that great of an actor in the La La, but I think he could sneak in there in the same way Jennifer Lawrence does for the same reasons. I kept switching Andrew Garfield and the guy from Nocturnal Animals who won the Golden Globe in and out. I've heard Andrew was really good, but that other guy came out of nowhere at the Globes, so, maybe that's a sign. I also would, personally, put Colin Farrell in for The Lobster, but I think maybe the movie as a whole will be looked over at the awards. Best Actress in a Lead Role Emma Stone - La La Land Isabelle Huppert - Elle Natalie Portman - Jackie Viola Davis - Fences Michelle Williams - Manchester by the Sea Will Win: Isabelle Huppert Should Win: Isabelle Huppert I think this will be one of the toughest categories. There were a lot of great female roles last year. Best Actor in a Supporting Role You know, I don't really have guesses for this category. I looked at the Globes nominations and I thought three of those were leads. The others, or others I can think of were thoroughly meh. The best I can come up with is one of the Moonlight guys, and I'll do my longhot of John C Reilly in The Lobster. Best Actress in a Supporting Role I see that again a lot of women I considered leads were listed as supporting at the Globes, but: Octavia Spencer - Hidden Figures Greta Gerwig - 20th Century Women Angeliki Papouila - The Lobster Naomie Harris - Moonlight I'm clearly confused about leads and supporting roles so that list is more of a wishlist than an actual prediction. If Viola Davis is supposed to be considered Supporting then she'll be nominated here instead and win. Angeliki's performance is the one that stuck with me the most, though. (Although, to be fair, I haven't seen Fences.) Best Original Screenplay La La Land 20th Century Women The Lobster Manchester By the Sea Hell or High Water Will Win: Manchester By the Sea Should Win: The Lobster I'm not totally confident in the Manchester prediction, it might actually go to La La. But I am very confident in my should win for The Lobster. One of the most original movies I've ever seen, and it stuck with me for daaaays. I still think about it. Best Adapted Screenplay Moonlight Fences Arrival Hidden Figures Nocturnal Animals Will Win: Moonlight Should Win: Moonlight Best Cinematography Moonlight La La Land Arrival I can't come up with 5 and there really isn't a point because Moonlight and La La will be duking it out for this one. I'm not really sure if I can pick which one will or should win either. Best Costume Design La La Land Jackie Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them Florence Jenkins I know I'm the only one here who cares about this but Jackie should win this. La La still might, though, and it would also be deserved. Best Documentary 13th The Hunting Ground Weiner I Am Not Your Negro Whatever the O.J one was called Will Win: 13th Should Win: 13th
Here's the actual list: http://oscar.go.com/news/nominations/oscar-nominations-2017-view-the-complete-list-of-nominees BEST PICTURE Arrival Fences Hacksaw Ridge Hell or High Water Hidden Figures La La Land Lion Manchester by the Sea Moonlight ============================= ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge Ryan Gosling, La La Land Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic Denzel Washington, Fences ============================= ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE Isabelle Huppert, Elle Ruth Negga, Loving Natalie Portman, Jackie Emma Stone, La La Land Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins ============================= ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE Mahershala Ali, Moonlight Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea Dev Patel, Lion Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals ============================= ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE Viola Davis, Fences Naomie Harris, Moonlight Nicole Kidman, Lion Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea ============================= ANIMATED FEATURE FILM Kubo and the Two Strings Moana My Life as a Zucchini The Red Turtle Zootopia ============================= CINEMATOGRAPHY Arrival La La Land Lion Moonlight Silence ============================= COSTUME DESIGN Allied Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them Florence Foster Jenkins Jackie La La Land ============================= DIRECTING Arrival Hacksaw Ridge La La Land Manchester by the Sea Moonlight ============================= DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE) Fire at Sea I Am Not Your Negro Life, Animated O.J.: Made in America 13th ============================= DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT) Extremis 4.1 Miles Joe’s Violin Watani: My Homeland The White Helmets ============================= FILM EDITING Arrival Hacksaw Ridge Hell or High Water La La Land Moonlight ============================= FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM Land of Mine A Man Called Ove The Salesman Tanna Toni Erdmann ============================= MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING A Man Called Ove Star Trek Beyond Suicide Squad ============================= MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE) Jackie La La Land Lion Moonlight Passengers ============================= MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG) "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)" from La La Land Music by Justin Hurwitz; Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul "Can’t Stop The Feeling" from Trolls Music and Lyric by Justin Timberlake, Max Martin and Karl Johan Schuster "City Of Stars" from La La Land Music by Justin Hurwitz; Lyric by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul "The Empty Chair" from Jim: The James Foley Story Music and Lyric by J. Ralph and Sting "How Far I’ll Go" from Moana Music and Lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda ============================= PRODUCTION DESIGN Arrival Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them Hail, Caesar! La La Land Passengers ============================= SHORT FILM (ANIMATED) Blind Vaysha Borrowed Time Pear Cider and Cigarettes Pearl Piper ============================= SHORT FILM (LIVE ACTION) Ennemis Intérieurs La Femme et le TGV Silent Nights Sing Timecode ============================= SOUND EDITING Arrival Deepwater Horizon Hacksaw Ridge La La Land Sully ============================= SOUND MIXING Arrival Hacksaw Ridge La La Land Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi ============================= VISUAL EFFECTS Deepwater Horizon Doctor Strange The Jungle Book Kubo and the Two Strings Rogue One: A Star Wars Story ============================= WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY) Arrival Fences Hidden Figures Lion Moonlight ============================= WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY) Hell or High Water La La Land The Lobster Manchester by the Sea 20th Century Women
I don't have my award picks yet, but Moonlight has my vote for best movie of the year. It's a spellbinding film, check it out.
Life has conspired to keep me from seeing even half of the nominees this year. I'll be watching this year's awards mostly unawares. That said, here are a few thoughts: - Rumor has it Viola Davis may be facing a backlash because she's in the running for Best Supporting Actress for what most (probably all) voters would consider a Best Actress lead role, and that her (or her producers') attempt to avoid the heavy hitters and compete in a less packed category will result in the Academy giving the statue to someone else. Don't buy that shit for a minute. That happens literally every year, and in fact Alicia Vikander won that Oscar doing the exact same thing just last year. There are no hard and fast rules over what constitutes the difference between a Lead or Supporting role, and the Academy isn't going to make one up this year. If she gave the best performance of the bunch - and by all accounts she did - then she'll go home with the award. But what do I know? I didn't see Hidden Fences anyway. - It's not wise to vote against the pop star in the Best Original Song category in any year, much less one in which the song in question is way catchier than the songs from the Best Picture favorite which is a musical, to boot. However, I'd put all my money on Justin Timberlake winning this Oscar for one even more important reason: he may be the only name on the shortlist to host future shows and the only person in the world who can guarantee winning ratings without knowing what the slate of nominated films will be. Making him a full-fledged member of the club seems like a small price to pay for his services. - I didn't see all of the Best Actress performances, but I did see La La Land and Florence Foster Jenkins. I'll say this about Emma Stone: within the next decade, she will win an Oscar along with Michelle Williams, Amy Adams, and J-Law (again). They're all on the Kate Winslet lay-away awards plan. But, if Hollywood really wants to make a political statement without being to obvious about it...Meryl Streep kicked Stone's ass in a head-to-head matchup. But that's not entirely fair: Streep is the GOAT, and she's better than every living actress already, so giving her a fourth title and the chance to slam Trump before an even bigger audience might be too tempting to pass up. La La Land will take home the grand prize anyway (sorry, Moonlight, which I haven't seen but don't need to), and Stone will get hers soon enough.
Unless the entire Academy is gay, Moonlight will win for Best Picture. That being said, my pick to win Best Picture is La La Land. Because for some fucking reason musicals win and fuck musicals. Natalie Portman will be drunk, abusive and vulgar in every conversation. When Octavia Spencer collects her award on stage she will do a one-arm spinning handstand. The camera will show Jack Nicholson approx. 6743 times. You must drink every time it does this. Sean Penn will say something directly into a live microphone that once again proves he's a huge asshole.
Well, I got that wrong. But, not as wrong as Faye Dunaway and Price Waterhouse Coopers amirite? Ha. ETA: And, way to sell out your co-presenter, Warren Beatty.
Of all the Oscar predictions I saw, predicting that a 9 months pregnant woman not even in attendance would be a drunken mess might be the most wrong.
I have no doubt that Sean Penn is an asshole. But is Natalie Portman a raging drunk? If so, I had no idea. She always seemed so demure.
I think the raging drunks were the accountants. I wonder who got fired after PwC screwed up the envelopes. So, they have duplicate sets of award envelopes on each side of the stage, so the presenters can come from either way? If so, I think I'm more surprised this has never happened before, rather than that it happened last night. And, I know it was live TV, and caught him totally off guard; but, why didn't Warrant Beatty just turn to one of the producers and say, "I don't think this is right," instead of giving up and passing it to Faye Dunaway? Surely, they have a guy . . . like, hey, if you pick up a statuette and the head falls off, we have replacements over here. Or, if you open the envelope and a streaker runs on stage to steal it, look over here. Something.
I'm guessing nobody will get fired unless they deem it damage to the firm brand. Sounds like one of the two partners made the screw up, and accounting firm partners usually only get fired if they break the law (Enron, etc.) or if they don't generate business.
It boggles my mind how people even think that this would warrant being fired over. Mind you, less and less people are watching, so maybe this is their idea of a "wardrobe malfunction" to try and drum up some bullshit drama and get some interest back.
Yeah, the "Hidden Fences" thing was a joke from the Golden Globes, demonstrating that even people in Hollywood hadn't seen the movies and didn't know the difference. I don't know about you guys, but the Kimmel v Damon gag never gets old. I thought the unsuspecting tour group was brilliant, too.
If I had to guess, I'd bet that one of the cases had two Best Actress envelopes and one had two Best Picture envelopes and no one noticed until it was too late. Simple, delightfully entertaining, human error.
Playing him off when he was presenting was amazing. And Damon just sticking his leg out and tripping Kimmel was so delightfully slapstick and low brow.
They had streakers back in the day, perhaps a firebombing or live sex show would do the trick. If this was a stunt, it might work. It was all the rage today in the news or conversation, and I'm sure people will tune in next year to see which millionaire shits the bed this time.
If people weren't in on it, you'd think its for real the way Damon sells it. He is so good at playing the unhinged, bullied kid in this bit.
Not fired. Just won't ever work the Oscars again. One of the accountants responsible tweeted a photo of Emma Stone during the event, got distracted, and handed Beatty the wrong envelope. Oops. Then, they didn't follow their own protocol in place, and that's why it took so long to correct the error. PWC continued relationship with the Academy is under review. http://www.usatoday.com/story/life/...oopers-accountants-next-year-oscars/98598564/