Just so we can keep the TiB FF thread nice and tidy. Any word on how the lack of positive news regarding Peyton Manning's surgery is going to affect his draft status? He's a perennial 1st round pick, but I'm wondering if he's going to fall (a little) on news that he will miss the entire preseason, have very little practice to get off that rust, and he might not even be 100% when the regular season finally starts.
He's Peyton Manning- he's going to play. He might not be 100% for week one, but he's going to be the starter. I wouldn't take him in the first round though. Not when there are healthier options that are just as good if not better (Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Vick. Hell, even Rivers). If he's still there in Rds 2 or 3, I say go for it. Had my first draft last night- 12 team, no PPR, non-keeper league. I picked 8th: QB: Matt Ryan RB: Ray Rice RB/WR: Frank Gore RB/WR: Desean Jackson WR: Reggie Wayne WR: Dwayne Bowe TE: Owen Daniels DEF: Giants K: Mason Crosby Mario Manningham Beanie Wells Tim Hightower Hines Ward Kyle Orton Anthony Dixon Mike Williams (Seattle) Greg Little Overall, I'm pretty happy with my team. After friggin FOUR QBs were taken in a row right ahead of me, and a whopping TEN QBs taken in the first 2 rounds, I was able to get what I see as two legitimate RBs and three stud WRs. Now I just need the hangover to go away.
I know the Saints are going to try to be a more balanced team this year, which will lead to more running plays being called, but you're still looking at a situation where he's going to be splitting carries with at least two other backs in Thomas and Sproles (maybe even three, if Ivory gets healthy). I don't see Ingram getting more than, say, 200 carries this year as the "main back". That said, if he was sitting there after around the 6th or 7th round, I'd take a shot at him. But with the exception of Brees, The Saints just spread the ball around too much for any one player to be a consistent week-to-week fantasy impact.
Just got invited to take over a team in a 10 team keeper. Standard scoring, except 6 pts per passing TD. Keeping P Manning, and Forte or Fitzgerald. Any advice on which to pick?
What's up guys? Haven't posted in like a year. Yeah I know, I'm shocked the board is still running in my absence (who are you?) Anyway, had my first draft today. Ten team league, I'm pretty happy with it. 4p for passing td, no ppr. Starters: QB: Tony Romo RB: MJD RB: Michael Turner WR: Greg Jennings WR: Jeremy Maclin TE: Dallas Clark K: Alex Henery DST: NYG Bench: Sidney Rice Ryan Grant Josh Freeman Beanie Wells Jordy Nelson I like my back ups a lot. I drafted Romo late since everyone ignores the numbers he puts up and if he gets hurt I think I'm ok with Freeman. My back up rbs should both get the majority of carries on their team, and Rice was kind of a gamble even if he is on the bench, but I think he is a nice sleeper. People seem to have not realized that the guy is really good. He has no QB, but his division has no defense either. Nelson was my throw away pick, I got him in the 2nd to last round before my kicker. Bluedog- I'm surprised you got that team in a 12 man league. Also, in my opinion Manning is never a first rounder. Rodgers, Vick (risky though), Rivers, Brees, and Brady are all projected to have better numbers. Throw in the injury and the fact that you generally want RBs first and I would take him in the third round earliest. For the poster above me, that kind of depends on whether the league is ppr. If it is PPR I would take Fitzgerald and Forte. If not, keep manning and dump Forte. Forte and Fitz are hard to predict. Manning should still be solid when he heals, but I don't know if the colts' offense is as good as it used to be. As for Fitz, I have no idea how Kolb will do, but again, the fact that that division is so bad raises his value. He still had a decent year last season with the worst QB situation in the league. Just saying.
Jesus man... I drafted my second team last night, and it is pretty much identical to yours- 12 Team, no PPR, non-keeper, 6th overall pick: QB Tony Romo RB MJD RB/WR Michael Turner RB/WR Mike Wallace WR Mike Williams WR Anquan Boldin TE Dallas Clark DEF Dallas K Josh Brown Santana Moss CJ Spiller Thomas Jones Kyle Orten Rasheed Jennings Jason Snelling Nate Burleson Greg Olson I like your backups better than mine, as well as your receivers (if in fact Maclin can get over his strange case of Mono-AIDS). I had one of those nights where everyone I really wanted was picked right before me, leaving me kinda scratching my head and taking the best available from there. I'll probably drop Burleson this week and take a shot at a young WR or whatever is available.
What are your thoughts on Vick? Consensus seems to be that he's an early first rounder, with a sizable minority thinking he's an obvious #1. On a pure numbers perspective from last year....it's hard to argue. He led all players on a per game basis, and was getting you 10 points more per week vs. another elite level QB (Brady, Brees, Manning, Rogers, etc.). That's one hell of an advantage to have. On the other hand....I just don't trust him. Last year was probably the best case scenario for Vick, with the exception of games missed. What are the odds he throws that few interceptions this year? It's only a sample size of 1 fantastic year, and he looked terrible in pre-season against Pittsburgh. I wouldn't be terrible surprised to see him revert to a middle-of-the-pack QB, and that's a hell of a lot of risk for a top pick. Compared to AP, who you know will be dependably good even if he isn't the best.
Why would you ever take a QB with the number one overall pick? I'm too lazy to pull the stats right now, but you should always go with a RB. No QB is ever an early first rounder. I mean, if you knew he would have a year like Brady's super season then yes, but you don't know that and it's the only exception. Personally I would put Vick around 5th as far as QBs go. I would rather have someone with proven consistent success than the one year wonder. If you really like Vick take him early in the second round. Let someone else waste their early pick on a risky QB and then grab Brees or Rivers later. Long story short, the reason elite RBs are better is that they score way more than mediocre RBs, while that remains less true of the QB position, even if QBs score more total.
I understand that is the conventional reasoning. The issue is whether Vick's monstrous statistics from last year overwhelm convention. The problem with Vick isn't the numbers. By the numbers, Vick is the clear choice. A preliminary search seems to indicate that 2010-1 Michael Vick was the single best player in fantasy history on a per game basis. Better than either Brady or Tomlinson's big seasons. He was twice as good as a mediocre QB (say, Eli Manning or David Gerrard). He's effectively a good QB and a decent RB rolled into one roster spot. The difference between Vick and the rest of the top 10 at his position last season was substantially more than for Foster, Lloyd, or Gates (top at their respective positions). I'm just unconvinced that it is representative of what Vick will do this year. Vick last year was like some kid playing Madden, and it just doesn't seem sustainable. He's historically known for being somewhat inaccurate and making poor decisions...yet had ridiculously good completion and interception percentages last season. Personally, I don't like the risk of taking Vick early, and will probably end up letting someone else roll the dice there.
Ok, my first time in an Auction draft, with guys from work, for $20/head, 10 teams. I got: QB Phillip Rivers RB Adrian Peterson RB Shonn Greene W/R Lee Evans WR Roddy White WR Vincent Jackson TE Rob Gronkowski D/ST Ravens K Nate Kaeding BE Eli Manning BE Ryan Torrain BE Ladanian Tomlinson BE Johnny Knox BE Hines Ward BE Donald Driver BE Brandon Jacobs Fucking beast mode, IMO. Tips/tricks? By the way, I fucking LOVE Auction.
It's conventional wisdom for good reason though. I'd rather take decades of statistical data over one. Vick may have had a bigger gap on a per game basis than foster relative to the position, but Foster's numbers were huge. If memory serves he was about 90 points above second place Peterson. Also, with Vick there is the injury issue - his career has been littered with that problem. He could repeat his magical year, but do you really think it's likely? His numbers are skewed by two games he went super sayan against Washington and New York that he's extremely unlikely to repeat. I just feel that if I was going to take a QB first I'd grab someone more proven like Rodgers who throws better, has an equally solid receiving group and also racks up yards on the ground (albeit less than Vick). I just think this is a risk you don't have to take when you can take someone safer and more promising like Johnson or Peterson. My 2 cents.
First draft of the year, ended up with the 1st overall pick in an 8 team league. QB - Drew Brees RB - Adrian Peterson RB - LeGarrette Blount RB/WR - BenJarvis Green-Ellis WR - Miles Austin WR - Greg Jennings TE - Rob Gronkowski D/ST - Ravens K - Garrett Hartley BE - Ryan Grant RB BE - Austin Collie WR BE - Pierre Thomas RB BE - Danny Woodhead RB BE - Arrelious Benn WR BE - Tony Gonzalez TE
Just finished up my first draft this year. Think I did pretty well: T. Brady C. McCoy K. Orton S. Jackson F. Jones D. Thomas B. Wells M. Floyd A. Green S. Holmes C. Johnson S. Moss M. Lewis J. Witten O. Mare 49ers Starters are bolded. I play in a 2 QB league, so I put a slightly higher value on quarterbacks than I usually would. I was the 8th pick and went with Tom Brady, and I was extremely happy that Megatron fell to me. I lost a game last year specifically because he was the last guy on the other dudes team and had like 3 touchdowns to beat me. That won't happen again. I really hope Beanie Wells has a good year. People keep talking it up and I don't see it. He fell to me in the 6th round and I gave it a try. I'm probably going to try to trade Santana Moss to someone who needs a WR for a RB, as my backups are quite thin.
The basic argument for Wells seems to be "Well, someone has to rush the ball." With Tim Hightower out of town and Ryan Williams hurt, he will at least get carries, which is more than one can say for backs like Ryan Grant, James Stewart, etc.
Your team is good. You're in an 8 man league. Surprise! I hate small leagues. I prefer 12, doing my first 14 team league this year as well. This is my first team in a 10 team auction league. $125 buy-in/$2 transaction fees. No PPR, 6 pt passing tds, -3 pts for passing ints. $200 auction budget. Oh, and for some reason this league also forces you to fill your roster with at least 2 of everything. Hence the 2 D's, 2 K's, etc. QB: Tom Brady - $42 RB: LeSean McCoy - $40 RB: LaGarette Blount - $20 WR: Calvin Johnson - $36 WR: Reggie Wayne - $25 FLEX: Ocho Cinco - $11 TE: Todd Heap - $1 D/ST: Pats / Falcs - Both $2 2 kickers for $1 each, don't know or care who I got. BENCH RB: Tim Hightower - $5 WR: Santana Moss - $2 RB: Fred Jackson - $1 TE: Chris Cooley - $1 QB: Mark Sanchez - $1 I like my team... too bad Brady won't be repeating his 4 INT year from last year. Although if he does that will certainly be fine with me.
I've never played auction, so take this with a grain of salt, but it strikes me that you paided a pretty penny for your top picks (your price for Brady is substantially above his average value, I think) and it cost you in depth. Sure, I love Brady and Megatron and expect solid production from them (I'm wary about McCoy, but I'm not sure why), but you better pray to your gods for the health of your skill positions.
First draft of the year: standard scoring except 6 points per passing TD and .5 points per reception. I had the 11th pick in a 12 team league. QB: Drew Brees (2nd round) RB: Felix Jones (3rd round) RB: Shonn Green (4th round) WR: Andre Johnson (1st round) WR: Mario Manningham (5th round) WR: Stevie Johnson (6th round) TE: Greg Olsen (10th round) K: Josh Brown (15th round) Def: New Orleans (9th round, there was a run on defenses) BN: Beanie Wells (7th round) BN: Malcom Floyd (8th round) BN: Matt Cassel (11th round) BN: Daren Sproles (12th round) BN: C.J. Spiller (13th round) BN: Jerome Simpson (14th round) Overall I feel good about that draft. I knew RB was really, really deep this year, so I focused my first two rounds on ensuring I had a top end QB and WR, and I think I got the top WR in Fantasy land, and a QB that is at least in the top 2 or 3 (I'd take Brees before everyone else but Rodgers). I also feel really good about Beanie Wells dropping as far as he did to me in round 7, allowing me a lot of depth at RB. Bye weeks might suck (week 7 especially) but I'll cross that bridge when I reach it.
I keep hearing people mention Beanie Wells, and I was just wondering why. Arizona was dead last in 2010 in rushing attempts, yards per game, and in the bottom third in rushing TDs, all despite having a decent average per rush. I just don't feel like Wiz enjoys rushing the ball all that much, and I feel like having a (supposedly) better QB this year will just reinforce that tendency. I understand people mean Wells as a decent backup, but I'm skeptical about his potential even in that role.
Beanie's upside is through the roof for a few reasons. First, last year, they had a mish-mash of awful QBs, and couldn't throw for shit (even with Larry Fitzgerald on their team). Opposing defenses knew this, so they stacked the box against the run every single game and simply dared Arizona to throw it. Besides that, Arizona played from behind a lot last year, forcing them into more of a passing attack to try to score more (which didn't do shit). This year, with Kolb, opposing defenses will be forced to respect the pass more, they'll be forced to double Larry Fitzgerald again, and be forced to keep that extra man OUT of the box, which should open up some running room. Plus, if they get ahead, they can use Beanie to pound the ball inside and control the clock, something they rarely had a chance to do last year. Of course, this is all dependent on Kolb being the QB that everyone seems to think he is, but we really have no idea. If Kolb sucks, Arizona will suck, the box will get stacked with 8 men again, and Beanie will be up shit creek in a place I like to call "Forte-ville" where he is the only useful weapon on an otherwise shit team. Second, Tim Hightower was poaching carries last year, but he was shipped off to Washington. The guy Beanie was supposed to split carries with this year is injured, leaving Beanie the lone healthy (good) RB in Arizona. The thought is that he will get the vast majority of the touches in that offense, including at the goal line, making him a high volume RB who should, by the simple number of carries he gets, eclipse 1000 yards easily. Now, I drafted him as a backup, but I also drafted him for his potential upside (same for Felix Jones and Shonn Green). If Beanie explodes, awesome. If he sucks, he is just a backup that will get used two weeks and get tossed onto the waiver wire. Still, if I had to guess who was going to have a breakout season this year, Beanie Wells is at the top of the list.