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Dear Leader's Great Wisdom

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by downndirty, Apr 4, 2013.

  1. RCGT

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    Agreed with Omegaham, North Korea reintegrating with South Korea would be a massive drain on SK's economy for upwards of a decade. No one wants that country.

    If it's anything, it's gonna be chemical. Biological weapons require things like infrastructure and scientists and refrigerators and areas good for incubation. Any idiot can put together some chlorine gas.

    Also, using chemical weapons doesn't mean they hit the targets you want. I'm reminded about a story about the LTTE using chlorine gas in the Sri Lankan Civil War. Scroll down to page 43.

    That too.
     
  2. downndirty

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    <a class="postlink" href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-22056387" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-22056387</a>

    This might be the bone thrown to NK to back down. This way, Kim can claim "Look, they are afraid of me, too!"

    The US loses nothing by delaying a missile test, North Korea can claim a victory that no one else gives a shit about, and the whole thing can return to normal.
     
  3. Nettie

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    And they actually do. Granted, it was approximately 20 years ago when I was there, spoiled being stationed in Seoul, and they'd lock the post down due to North Korea doing something other than sending balloons filled with propaganda cards over. Then, there was some holiday (been too long, sorry!) that South Koreans would protest the US still being there, and the post would lock down again.

    But if you had the clearance go to off post, then other than right outside the gates, it was business as usual in Seoul (our 3rd shop to pick up parts was off base, and I had security clearance to go on/off).

    Even back then, you had to have security clearance to go to the Det's (detachments on the DMZ). My motor pool supported them, so yeah, I got to go. There was more than one occasion that we had to stay overnight, and it was nothing to hear random gunfire. The first time, I freaked out. The people stationed there, "Oh, it's okay, someone just probably ran for the border, and didn't make it." At night, it was strange & neat all at the same time to sit out & watch the lights of the helicopters circling around watching for people try to cross.

    My roommate was S-2, so I'd hear more about what was going on than the average person stationed over there & the reasons for lockdowns. But this is nothing new, just the new leader flexing a bit more publicly.

    I know they're saying they're "not evacuating", etc., but a friend of my mom's has a daughter who was working in Seoul as a tour guide. Last week they basically told her pack up & get ready to go home, and shipped her to Japan. So while they're not actively panicking, they're taking some sort of precautions for the civilian US citizens there. Or her company is being paranoid, who knows.
     
  4. Omegaham

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    Wait, people would protest their primary ally in ensuring that North Korea doesn't envelop them in their Glorious People's Socialist Worker's Paradise? That just sounds hilarious.

    "How DARE you protect us! Down with the American imperialist aggression that keeps North Korean imperialist aggression from enslaving us all!"

    I guess attitudes change. A buddy of mine stationed in Korea right now said that there was some protest due to Soldiers acting a-fool out in town. The local mafia and all the business owners came out and beat the shit out of the protesters because they've seen what the Okinawa lockdown has done to all the businesses there.
     
  5. Trakiel

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    I was thinking about this issue - how bad must NK be compared to SK for this to be a deal-breaking concern? I remember when Germany was reunified that they had to go through the pains of West being much more advanced than East, but they seem to have come through the other end of that tunnel pretty well. No matter how bad it is now, it's still has to be better in the long run for Korea to be reunified.
     
  6. RCGT

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    You know, the thing I can't figure out is, the last time they tried some minor saber-rattling, it actually prompted the US to cancel its food aid. So what the fuck is the endgame?

    I guess that's more support for the notion that this is Lil Kim trying to consolidate his power domestically.
     
  7. ghettoastronaut

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    I don't know about the Germany comparison. There are plenty of West Germans who harbour resentment towards the East, as a lot of government money is going and has gone towards infrastructure and development, while that part of the county is still not as economically productive as the West, and there are still cultural differences between the two. Take this to a much more extreme level with the north/south. It's been, what, 25 years since the Wall fell, and things are still being ironed out. Can't imagine that a North / South merger will be an economically happy one. After the initial honeymoon phase, it'll take much longer than the next generation reaching adulthood for the country to even seem on the outside like a modern day Germany.

    I mean, it would be better that an open and Western-friendly government be installed, absolutely, but no matter what it will take a lot of foreign aid and development projects for the North to be a functional society, whether unified with the South or not.

    Of course the main difference is that by the time the Wall fell, most people in Eastern Europe had seen through communism and the government, but we really don't know much about the average North Korean in that regard.
     
  8. downndirty

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    That's usually the reason Americans are not popular here: the troops get drunk and do something retarded, like shoot an airsoft gun at people, lead a high speed chase and get shot by the police in the arm. <a class="postlink" href="http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20130311001050" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20130311001050</a>

    It takes a degree of cultural sensitivity to live here, because off the cuff they do some weird shit. This is one of the most slavishly uptight places in the world and has been for thousands of years. Combine that with an undercurrent of xenophobia, one of the world's worst (or best) drinking cultures and an intolerance for youthful fuckery, and it's clear why the soldier's antics get tons of bad press.

    At this point, it's unlikely that NK could successfully invade SK without intervention from allies. Maybe as recently as 15 years ago it would have been possible, but an army of 9 million people throwing rocks doesn't stack up against a modern conventional military machine.

    Weirdly, the army part of town in Seoul, Itaewon, has become a hotspot all on it's own. It's where most of the foreigners live/work so they have the most exotic restaurants and the least uptight bars. If the army is on lockdown, it doesn't really stop the show, so to speak.
     
  9. Nettie

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    Yeah, even back then there were strict rules of conduct, that were frequently broken, and that caused more issues than anything. Soju tents had JUST been put on a "DO NOT ENTER OR YOU WILL BE ARRESTED/COURT MARTIALED!" due to so many GI's ending up with alcohol poisoning (soju tents serve straight soju, whereas the bars/taverns/etc., it's kettles, where it's mixed). Somewhere I still have my inprocessing handouts about how to treat the locals. I was stationed in Camp Coiner (other side of the highway from Yongsan), and we were locked down more frequently than Yongsan (which had 121 Hospital, seen MASH? Yeah, 121 still exists) simply due to drunken soldiers. I'm sure things have changed in the last 20 years, but...

    Itaewon was the hot spot even back then. The best shopping (where you can bargain, man, do they have a lot of shoe shops!), Hooker Hill (if it's still there, nothing but bars, food stands & hookers), pretty much anything you wanted. They literally used to only shut the bars down between 4-5am to hose them out on HH. And if you were a regular, they'd pull the gate down, but leave it up a foot so you could stick your kettle under the gate to get refilled. Kimchi cabs abounded, where they didn't care if you could get 8 people in, it was one flat rate to the post gate, 1 person or 8.

    Anyway, sorry to derail, but it's more of a point I don't think the culture of that area has changed in the 20 years since I've been there.
     
  10. Pow

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    I'm pretty sure it would be easier to just shoot down their missiles and then give them internet (4G, satellite) and air drop $50 android phones with fliers on how to google their own state of disrepair. Or at least how to download angry birds and ruin their military's productivity.
     
  11. Cult

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    Depending on the chemical they could be rendered completely ineffective by wind or rain or they could turn an area into a toxic wasteland for several days. Chemical weapons are best served as area denial weapons so the ideal target would be air bases, but they don't really have the missile capability to deliver them effectively, artillery on the other hand they have a lot of but that means they can only really hit targets along the DMZ and like less than 50km in to S Korea. Still a real threat though.

    Pure speculation on my part but I don't think we would nuke North Korea even if they did use chemical/biological or nuclear weapons.
     
  12. downndirty

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    I would not be so sure....

    <a class="postlink" href="http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-dossiers/north-korean-dossier/north-koreas-weapons-programmes-a-net-asses/the-conventional-military-balance-on-the-kore/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.iiss.org/publications/strate ... -the-kore/</a>

    If that's too long, or the Goddamned font is too tiny, the article says that there would be no foregone conclusion in a conflict. The US/SK would win, but at what cost? The Korean terrain would be a nightmare, with only three lines of travel between North and South. There is precious little knowledge about what they have and where it's stored, so bombing the shit out of the country would take years. Also, NK has had thousands of artillery batteries pointed at Seoul for decades now. Finally, the average NK soldier might not be as well armed, but they do command a bit more respect than the Iraqi soldiers did, in that they are better trained and less likely to desert.

    Strategically, Lil Kim could try a blitzkrieg-style attack on the South, take Seoul after an artillery pounding and then demand concessions before the main US force is mobilized and air superiority is established. This is a bit more scary, because it sounds reasonable, especially if you believe the sanctions are hurting. The US would be faced with the dilemma of full-scale war in Korea (again) with Seoul's millions held hostage, or conceding to KJU.

    One interesting thing is that if one side believes an attack is coming, there is strategic value in a pre-emptive strike. This is why he's not saying, "we will launch a missile at 4 p.m. on Tuesday", because if he can goad the US into overreacting, he gains a slight advantage.

    Personally, I think KJU put the nail in this regime's coffin by threatening the US mainland with nuclear war. Everyone is waiting on the next shoe to drop, and should this situation continue to escalate, expect to see serious pressure on China in an "are you with us or against us?" scenario.
     
  13. kilo

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    An invasion of South Korea would be disastrous for both North and South Korea. The best case scenario for Kim is a replay of the First Gulf War. North Korea occupies at least a portion of South Korea, the USA forms a coalition, Kim stays in control of North Korea, but with a crippled military. South Korea would not role over the way Kuwait did, and there would probably be an active war when coalition forces move in. The strategic victory for North Korea would be an armed conflict leading to a stalemate, which would be hailed as a North Korean victory over the world.

    What would a post war North Korea look like with Kim still in power? I have to believe the North’s military would take a pounding from coalition forces. Just how resilient is the North Korean Army? How would Kim continue to hold power when the base of his power (ie the military) gets its ass kicked?

    It is hard to see a scenario where Kim remains in power after invading South Korea. South Korea and Japan would demand his removal. The USA and China would probably come up with some kind of nation building deal.

    North Korea is a humanitarian disaster that is on the edge of a cliff. After a collapse China and South Korea will diplomatically struggle to fill the vacuum. What will China want? That is the most interesting end game question.
     
  14. ghettoastronaut

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    <a class="postlink" href="http://mobile.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2013/04/10/north_korea_switzerland_offers_to_negotiate_in_latest_round_of_korean_peninsula.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://mobile.slate.com/blogs/the_slate ... nsula.html</a>

    Switzerland to the rescue!

    Also does anyone else find it hilarious that NK'w short range missiles are called Nodong and their long range missiles are called Taepodong? I mean. As if missiles weren't phallic enough.
     
  15. Cult

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    They fucked up, the long range missiles should be called Longdongs.
     
  16. lust4life

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    Pimp-slap this bitch already.
     
  17. ODEN

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  18. Cult

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    Well, the speculation is that they might try something today (It's 8:25 AM here) being a big Nork holiday as that article you posted pointed out. It's possible, last week they tested South Korean air space with MiGs but S Korean F-16s scare them off before they actually penetrated into South Korea. An actual air space incursion is pretty rare for either side, it usually only happens when pilots get lost.

    As for little Kim's disappearance, there are too many factors to really say, it'd be just guess work. He could be hiding from us, or he could be hiding from a rival North Korean faction as there are rumors of a power struggle.