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Coronavirus: Miles away from ordinary.

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by Juice, Jan 28, 2020.

  1. Jimmy James

    Jimmy James
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    I'm not sure I'm understanding you. Are you asserting that whomever "they" is, there was an agenda beyond detailing the results of their studies?
     
  2. Crown Royal

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    Just call me Topher

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    Our whole province just got handcuffed until pretty much June. No socializing. At all. You can be stopped and ID’ed without cause to make sure you are not mixing households, or be fined on the spot. Unreal. What a failure.
     
  3. Nettdata

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    Yeah. Joy.
     
  4. SouthernIdiot

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    Apparently Canada currently has a higher infection rate per capita than the US. Ooof.
     
  5. bewildered

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  6. Nettdata

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    Yep. The lack of vaccine rollouts and the variants and the stupid people are having their effect.

    Our local hospitals are at capacity.

    Luckily my Mom got shot one of the Pfizer, and is off to bed early with chills and mild headache.

    I'm up in the next group here soon, so here's hoping.
     
  7. SouthernIdiot

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    Hope y'all stay safe. These new variants aren't a joke.
     
  8. Revengeofthenerds

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    so weird the differences between countries, hell even how local communities are handling it. Our schools got an E-mail today from a hospital, with info to give to all the teachers for them to give to their families to get them registered and a vaccine (hospitals, government, everyone has been trying to get our teachers vaccinated since early on). I think the goal is like with voting, get one person to do it, and then get them to get three others, and get those three to each register three as well...
     
  9. bewildered

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    That was one thing the governor said in the article I linked, to talk to your neighbors, friends and family about the reasons why you decide to get the vaccine and to encourage others to do the same.

    I think I had a positive effect on my neighbor. She was hesitant to gettthe vaccine because it's a new vaccine etc but I've been pretty strict about not socializing during the pandemic and she said she wants her friends (I take that to include myself) to feel safe around her. Specific family members who are being hardheaded about this aren't going to listen to me because I'm their dumbass little sis, so I won't waste my breath.
     
  10. Crown Royal

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    No camping on Crown land or in provincial and national parks. Even if you have septic. That certainly puts a shiv in the kidney of your Airstream plans.
     
  11. Nettdata

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    Fuck that. I'm looking at buying a couple hundred acres in Northern Ontario.

    And there's the driveway.
     
  12. Crown Royal

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    That’s smarter, It’s SUPER cheap up there so you can buy a literal forest for five-digit asking prices. Winter, plus Black and deer fly season is the downside.
     
  13. kindalas

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    upload_2021-4-16_23-3-31.png

    This is what Ontario is dealing with right now.

    We had to open schools in September.

    Kids had to be in classrooms.

    It's been a long series of terrible decisions with obvious outcomes.
     
  14. Binary

    Binary
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    @Kubla Kahn @SouthernIdiot

    I just got thinking about the breakthrough cases and infection rates and thought I'd compare to the published study numbers...

    Vaccine efficiency was 91.3% and 94.1% for Pfizer and Moderna respectively. To make our calculations easier we'll average that = 92.7% average vaccine effectiveness. I'm leaving J&J out but that would actually make this calculation look better because it was less effective.

    About 10% of US residents have been diagnosed with COVID. So we'll just assume that's the exposure rate, even though that's assuredly low (it's more likely that cases are underreported than overreported).

    77 million doses of vaccine have been administered. Again if we assume the best case scenario - those people are not being less careful and they are being exposed at the 10% rate above - then we have about 7.7 million exposures. At 92.7% effectiveness you would expect 562,100 breakthrough cases, which would put the severe cases at 0.07% of the statistically expected number of breakthrough cases. So if you go by the published study numbers, you'd estimate that the vaccines are 99.93% effective at preventing severe disease, instead of 100%. Which seems pretty reasonable just given that there's only so large a study you can do.

    Obviously those numbers are largely assumptions, but I believe I mostly assumed to the detriment of the studies - I suspect that vaccine recipients are being less careful, cases are certainly underreported so the exposure rate is probably higher anyway, and the J&J vaccine is substantially less effective, so the breakthrough rates should be higher.

    Interested to hear if anyone has feedback on this, because it was kind of a "shower thought." I'm not a statistics guy.
     
  15. walt

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    I woke up thinking I dodged the bullet after Moderna shot #2 yesterday. Felt perfectly fine but as the morning had progressed I’ve gotten a little achey, have a headache and am tired. No fever so far, thank Christ. If this is the worst it gets, I’ll consider myself lucky.

    My arm though, holy shit that has been hurting. Still beats the alternative.

    My brother, the insulin dependent diabetic changed his mind and is looking to get vaccinated. Hopefully he can talk some sense into our parents.
     
  16. Nettdata

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  17. SouthernIdiot

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    I think a lot of what you said has merit. The only thing that I disagree with is saying the J&J vaccine was less effective. It was tested later than Moderna & Pfizer, so it went up against the South African and UK variants. We have no clue how Moderna and Pfizer would have performed under the same situation, so it's hard to compare. And I'm far from a stat guy myself, so hopefully someone who is chimes in.
     
  18. Jimmy James

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    I am literally sitting in the after vaccination waiting area right now after my second Moderna shot. So fucking happy and significantly less anxious about getting other people sick.

    My reaction to the first was a 3 day long charlie horse in my arm. Hopefully this one is less obnoxious.
     
  19. Aetius

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    At the risk of tempting fate, I'm 10 days after the first shot and experienced nothing whatsoever. Hopefully the second goes as easily.
     
  20. walt

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    I ended up with a headache and low grade fever this afternoon, and overall felt cruddy but again, nothing like what my wife or @bewildered and her husband experienced. At least so far.