I think the big push has to be with China. They have to get control of Best Korea, and the US can't just fuck around in Best Korea without expecting some fucking serious shit from China.
They have to get China to accept that Best Korea has to go. China is the only reason the country existed in the first place and persists. China is emerging as a major player both in world trade and within the UN. I think they're getting sick of the burden of dragging the hermit kingdom along with them. That said, they'll never accept a prolonged allied force at their border. I'm not sure what the terms would have to be to get them to agree, but it's far more feasible than it would have been 15 years ago.
I can't help but think that the big game right now is between the US nuclear subs and China. There must be assets over there, and China must be going nuts trying to keep tabs on them. I don't think there's any way that China would accept the US putting official nuclear assets in South Korea (like a number of people are calling for), but that cat and mouse of "we don't have subs there" has to be pretty fucking intense.
Absolutely. Fat Boy has proven over and over again that in his world, the only one that matters is him. His country is starving, he doesn't care, he has enough to eat. If a normal person took the reins of NK they'd look at the situation and think "Man, something is horribly wrong. I'd better do something to bring my country up to speed with the rest of the world." That something is not imprisoning your countrymen and holding public executions for speaking ill of him and trying to start a nuclear war with the most powerful nation on Earth. He doesn't care about his countrymen, he doesn't care about you, me, or the woman down the street that saves kittens. He cares about himself. That's it. Fuck the rest of the world and if he has to take several million people down with him, he doesn't care. In his twisted mind, it was worth it because he will be remembered.
We still keep talking about this dreaded NK bomb as if other countries do not have thousands of counter measures that could shoot this down with ease. The media lives to play it off as if this missile could actually reach the USA. As if the USA doesn't literally and factually have thousands of ballistic vehicles that could take out this Coleco Vision-powered rocket with ease. North Korea is still a joke. People lose sleep over this country and don't even THINK about Pakistan, which is the actual country that should be giving them nightmares.
Pakistan isn't constantly making threats or holding others hostage. They're also not flaunting their nuclear program to the exclusion of all other stately matters. True, the Norks can't hit the United States, but are you sure they couldn't hit South Korea or Japan? How about 5 or 10 years from now? They've always been making threats and conducting absurd demonstrations of Best Korea might, but over the years it's mostly amounted to bluffs and blathering. The scale of the nuclear weapons they've recently developed actually is significant. What is the best case scenario here? They don't actually use the nukes, but just launch missiles over Japan and SK whenever they have some new demand to make? The worst case is they actually do use them, and the regime is insane enough that I don't think it's an impossibility.
Or the one ballistic missile defense system quick enough to save Seoul. Because you know they'd be the first to go, and after that it doesn't even matter how much further things escalate.
There are ship-based and land-based defense systems such as the THAAD system which have been tested to the point where a single missile is very unlikely to get through. The only concern with those systems, to my understanding, is a barrage of missiles overwhelming their acquisition system. As NK doesn't have the resources for that type of attack, there shouldn't be too high a level of concern.
The only thing I've heard of that comes close is the Iron Dome, and it's not meant for ICBM's... it's for incoming low-level SCUDS, rockets, mortars, etc., and even then it's fucking expensive, huge, and relatively short distance of coverage per battery. http://www.raytheon.com/capabilities/products/irondome/ The current systems in place will NOT knock an ICBM out of the sky... they are as insanely expensive as they are ineffective. http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2017/01/donald-trump-missile-defense-star-wars/
Has this ever been actually used? I know that there's a ton of money being spent on that kind of stuff, but I've never heard of it actually being effective. http://www.lockheedmartin.ca/us/products/thaad.html
There are also the GBI and SM-3 systems deployed on the pacific rim. As far as efficacy goes, I don't know for sure. Consequently, nobody knows whether or not NK has a re-entry vehicle that can withstand the forces involved either. Something like that is not easy to develop quickly. Again, I am in Guam and I'm not worried. I know a lot of military guys here that are not your average rank and file, they aren't worried etiher.......at least they aren't letting on. Separately, Seoul is a different ball game. If NK decided to attack Seoul there is nothing anyone could do to save them. Seoul is in the artillery fan, there aren't any systems out there to stop artillery barrages. Unless Magneto from X-Men shows up Seoul would be fucked.
I'm not really talking to having any reason to be worried, I just think a lot of people have a way, way inflated idea of the effectiveness of missile defence systems that may be in place. The guy who ran the weapons testing program at the Pentagon has come out to say that people, and the US, cannot expect them to live up to the hype, and they should not be relied upon. That being said, I don't really think that the Norks can successfully launch something that far (based on absolutely nothing, just a gut feeling), so I'm not sure just how worried people should be, other than nowhere near what the media wants you to be. I was more countering Crown's statement that there were thousands of systems that would effortlessly knock it down before it got anywhere important... that is nowhere near the case.
One of the most effective and best tested would be Israel's iron dome. As you mention though, even that wouldn't stop a full scale artillery barrage. Not to mention trying to implement a system of questionable efficacy across the entire Korean border would be enormously expensive. It's currently $50 million per battery and about $40,000 per missile and would need to be improved. Or we could just wipe out this regime that has accomplished nothing other than being the most annoying cunts on the planet and be done with it.
I understand the concern with the situation and also that there is a threat on the horizon but what you are talking about will ensure the loss of civilian life and follow-on humanitarian crisis on a scale that hasn't been seen in a very long time. It sounds good on the surface but those people are innocent hostages in NK, the SK folks will surely feel a disproportionate amount of pain compared to you or I and then beyond that there are the men and women who need to actually perform the task you are discussing. If I had to guess, the going rationale is that they probably have a line of no return for the NK nuke program which we haven't reached yet but which Un is working towards. For instance, if he were to show a successful re-entry vehicle capable of holding a nuke then that would probably be enough to warrant such a move. Until we reach the given point that none of us are privy to remember that a diplomatic solution is always the best approach. That diplomatic approach may be Chinese annexation of NK as well; all of which could very well be in the planning stages as I write this.
Oh, I'm not thinking it sounds good. I'm just weighing it against the alternative of North Korea further developing their nuclear programs and investing what meager state resources they have into finding ways to insure they can hit SK/Japan and the US in the more distant future if possible. There's no good answer for sure. I think the two biggest things (outside of the obvious loss of life) is how committed SK would actually be towards reunification at this point, and what exactly the reaction from China would be.
There is going to be a lot of reluctance from SK on unification. Many citizens will want it, but many powerful people won't because of the insane tasks that lie ahead if the countries unify. And that sucks, because their are thousands of families there separated by an invisible line. And those people in SK have had to eat it for the past five decades, knowing how much it sucks for their loved ones-turned-hostages living in shit just north of them. NK's infastructure is shot. The only place they are capable of actually making a nuclear weapon in their country is their only nuclear power plant which had been shut down for years. Their entire power grid is basically ancient crap that has never been upheld or renovated. It will take an insane amount of time, money and resources just to get it running again, much less make it to the standards of the SuperUltra-modern South Korea. The hardest part is the integration of the people caught in the worst crossfire here: NK citizens. Many of their people have been forced into believing an enormous lie about the world outside their borders, one filled literally with monsters and magic spells and the only person protecting them from these evils is You-Know-Who. These people have no fucking IDEA how powerful other nations' armed forces are. Now, if NK folds, they will be suddenly blindsided with the truth: that they were slaves, the entire lot of them in complete servitude to one single man despite the fact the only difference between them and us is the fact they were born there and got the raw deal. They're all malnourished and don't have good food to eat, they have never even seen a Hollywood movie or read a book outside NK. Imagine showing them Jurassic Park and T2. Whatever this is, it's a clusterfuck and it will end that way.
Can't we just air drop a bunch of fortune cookies on NK and be done with it? They'll be rioting in the streets from confusion in like three days max.
Point defense systems like the Iron Dome aren't meant for nukes. Intercepting just before impact is almost as bad as an impact/detonation. Even if the warhead doesn't go nuclear, you've just scattered nuclear material across a very large swath of your own territory. The best time to hit a ballistic missile is while still on the launcher. Shortly after liftoff is a distant second best option. The truly best option is persuading NK to never load the launchers in the first place.