This is the most in-depth 2012 breakdown I've seen http://www.informationisbeautiful.net/visualizations/2012-the-end-of-the-world/
To paraphrase, and mutilate, Mark Twain "The reports of impending doom have been greatly exaggerated" A few moments of reflection should be enough for you to decide that most of the scenarios are utter bullshit. This website refutes all of it nicely: http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/badastronomy/2009/11/23/2012-nonsense-at-information-is-beautiful/
I am wondering is there anyone on this forum familiar with the work of E.T. Jaynes on Probability Theory? Specifically the book Probability theory: the logic of science? And what do you think of it? The reason is I am interested in probability theory and I am looking for some good books on this subject. edit: I am well aware that I can look up the standard textbooks from opencourseware. I am looking for an opinion on this specific book.
RE: The Biggest Loser I'm too lazy to look figure it out myself, so I will ask here. Why can some of the contestants on biggest loser lose 25-30 lbs in one week? I've heard as a rule of thumb that one pound is 3500 calories. If true, wouldn't these people have to be at a calorie deficit in the thousands per day to put up some of their numbers? If possible, why? Too, is it particularly unsafe to lose 20 pounds in a week with a good diet and exercise if you weigh 300 lbs?
Why can they do it? Well partly because the game contestants gimmick the system. It's a numbers game and water loading and shedding is part of the game and has been since the beginning. These people are not just trying to lose weight, they're trying to win the game. Losing a few pounds of water, especially if before your last weigh in you knew that you had immunity or knew that you could beat one of the other contestants by a mile means that you can load a shitload of water into your system before one weigh in and drop it fairly easily for the next one. Also you have to consider basal metabolic rates. An average height/weight guy at 25 will burn something like 1800-2000 calories a day just by staying alive - maintaining body temperature and keeping blood flowing and lungs inflating. a 6'5, 375 lb 35 year old, will burn something like 3000-3500 calories a day just by staying alive - maintaining body temperature and keeping blood flowing etc. That's laying in bed all day, without moving a goddamn muscle, being fed through a glucose tube. Just chewing burns up more calories. Exertion is a multiplier. And these people are basically doubling their calorie consumption with the level of exertion they undergo. You can increase the metabolic rate further with environment conditions - like dropping the temperature so that keeping your body temp up is higher, o2 sat manipulation, food choices with a lower calorific yield - IE stuff that leaves less left over energy after you eat and digest it - Celery is the famous example where you can starve to death eating all of the shit you can fit in your stomach all day - it takes more calories to digest and chew the shit up then you gain from eating it. Also your body can only actually benefit from so much energy in a time period - If you go past the number of surplus calories that your body can use, you start storing it as fat - after that you just shed the excess as digestive waste. If your entire diet is KFC - you store a lot as fat and shit out a lot of grease because your body can't process it fast enough. If your diet is all low GI fibers - your body has a longer window to process the calories you take in - so there's a better chance that you'll actually use it up instead of dumping it to fat or greasy turds. So if you go from 4000-5000 high GI calories a day worth of KFC, with little if any exercise, and go into the biggest loser house, where your total calorific load is say 1500 calories a day, and it's all foods with a low yield - like celery, and low GI - with a huge exertion rate so that you you're burning 7500 or 8000 calories a day from the exercise schedule and environment schedule - and you're pouring out water that's been retained for years because you don't do anything that causes you to sweat and your body caches water for emergencies (a lot of water if you're on a shit diet with no exercise) - it's not that amazing to lose 30 lbs a week. But it is fucking unhealthy. Especially if you stay on that regime for months. Ignore the psychological criteria in diagnosing an eating disorder and look at it the way an MD does - there's no question that losing 25-30 lbs in one week is anorexic behavior manifesting in symptoms. Losing 50lbs in a year is the recommended healthy maximum - beyond that you expose yourself to all the physical symptoms of Anorexia. # Dramatic weight loss # Fixation on body image # Harshly critical of appearance # Compulsive exercising Does that sound like the Biggest loser at all? Hey, lets even go to the psychological symptoms - # Obsession with calories, fat grams, and nutrition – Reads food labels, measures and weighs portions, keeps a food diary, reads diet books. # Preoccupation with food – constantly thinks about food. May cook for others, collect recipes, read food magazines, or make meal plans. # Strange or secretive food rituals – Often refuses to eat around others or in public places. May eat in rigid, ritualistic ways Have you seen anybody on the Biggest Loser who's got an obsession with calories? Preoccupied with Food and has strange eating rituals? As to 'Why is anorexia bad?' * Loss of menstrual periods * Lack of energy and weakness * Feeling cold all the time * Dry, yellowish skin * Constipation and abdominal pain * Restlessness and insomnia * Dizziness, fainting, and headaches * Growth of fine hair all over the body and face * Difficulty thinking clearly, erratic mood swings * Hair gets thin and Brittle * Low blood pressure, Low heart rate, Heart flutters and Arrhythmia, Anemia, Heart Failure risk all dramatically increase * Joints swell and Osteoporosis risks increase. * Kidney Stones or Kidney Failure are more likely * Low potassium, Magnesium and Sodium * Abdominal Bloating * Hormonal instabilities * Bruise more easily and suffer skin and tissue degradation. When you lose weight at the rate that biggest loser contestants do - you negatively impact your entire body's stability. And maybe you offset some of that by reducing the risk of diabetes and all the other obesity related health issues. But I think in 5-10 years, we'll start seeing class actions against the Biggest Loser from former contestants for the long term health damage done by the anorexia for ratings and profit agenda of the franchise. It's also why so many ex contestants stack weight back on afterward. They're burning 5000+ calories a day and trying to keep up with the requirements to not starve the fuck to death. You eventually fall off the 5 hours a day exercise wagon and just pound weight back on. Competitive cyclists and endurance runners and shit who regularly burn 5000-10000 calories a day power through candy bars and junk shit trying to keep weight on. But they've got a passion for the incredibly taxing sport. The fat people who go on the biggest loser rarely have that kind of drive to keep exercising afterward and they find out that 3-6 months of anorexia isn't actually a cure for being fat. This is obviously something of a pet bitch of mine.
You are aware that the above effects of anorexia are because of malnourishment, right? It seems the diets the fatasses are put on cover all your basic metabolic (carbs, proteins and essensial fats) and biochemical needs (e.g. vitamins, minerals), so saying that they would suffer from the same conditions as someone who is five ten and 80 pounds and doesn`t get any of the vitamins, essensial aminoacid, minerals etc. is, well, stupid: * Loss of menstrual periods: * Lack of energy and weakness Who is more tired? And immobile fatass or a fatass working out and eating fruits and veggies? * Feeling cold all the time * Dry, yellowish skin * Constipation and abdominal pain I bet a healthy diet really fucks up your digestive system! * Restlessness and insomnia Working out during the day = sleep like a baby at night * Dizziness, fainting, and headaches They do eat, you know. And drink water * Growth of fine hair all over the body and face * Difficulty thinking clearly, erratic mood swings I`ll give you this one; deprive me of my favorite items in the universe and I`ll become a dickbag too. * Hair gets thin and Brittle (Nope, no vitamin B-defiency) * Low blood pressure, Low heart rate, Heart flutters and Arrhythmia, Anemia, Heart Failure risk all dramatically increase You seriously believe a 300 pound person is at a risk of LOW blood pressure? And flutters and arrhythmia is caused by electrolyte disturbance; I think these people get their potassium and calcium. * Joints swell and Osteoporosis risks increase.With the amount of vitamin D in the fish they`re eating and the fact their bones carry around that much weight...well * Kidney Stones or Kidney Failure are more likely Again, electrolyte-disturbance * Low potassium, Magnesium and Sodium Oh, here we are. THEY DON`T HAVE THIS BECAUSE THEY ARE ON A BALANCED, IF LOW-CALORIE, DIET * Abdominal Bloating * Hormonal instabilities * Bruise more easily and suffer skin and tissue degradation. They get their proteins so tissure regeneration doesn`t suffer.
Alright, this may seem like an odd inquisition, but let me preface it with this information. I am a regular, physically active/fit 18 year old male with no health problems. Recently i've engaged in a new years resolution-esque endeavor to lose the last couple pounds and get some gnarly 6-pack abs going on. I work out 3-5 times per week depending on my university work load for the week. I am completely content doing this the "legit" way, ie - via reduced caloric intake coupled with weight lifted and an hour of cardio (half running/half elliptical) on the days i work out. Basically for most of my life i have had a terrible diet (in the sense that i visit mcdonalds much more than most people would consider healthy and consume copious quantities of beer on weekends for the purpose of good old fashioned binge drinking) but my regular exercise and young male metabolism have come to an equilibrium of sorts. This "equilibrium" results in me being able to eat half a lemon meringue pie before going to bed and generally i just eat whatever whenever i feel hungry. In exchange for this dietary freedom, i have a slightly less than stellar body shape [see 6'0" 160lbs]. I am by no means fat or overweight, but i'd prefer to have a more defined figure. Recently because of my goal of attaining this more sculpted figure i've reverted to a much healthier diet which consists of breakfast, granola bar lunch and a regular dinner and eliminated snack foods/unhealthy foods/late evening desserts. However, this SUCKS. I still plan on keeping up with it for however long it may take, but i miss being able to eat half a bag of potato chips an hour before bed to satisfy my hunger. As a side note - i've found that in the evenings when i'm feeling hungry, chugging a couple large glasses of water helps curb the hunger. My query then is this: If i were to stay on my healthier diet (consuming all the necessary nutrients to be healthy) at the regular times and not really eating anything beyond 6pm dinner - What is the feasibility of me binging on half a cake in the late evening (like in the good old days) and puking it up a few minutes later? I know bulimia is a nasty disease with severe health implications, but if i'm not ACTUALLY bulimic and consume a healthy diet and my binge/puke cycle is completely for recreational purpose (i miss the taste of such delicious treats), then would i still suffer from the side effects of bulimia? I know this sounds ludacris but heres the stupid logic i use to justify it. From what i've read most of these side effects of bulimia come from being malnourished from the induced puking, but on my "plan" i would still consume and digest my days worth of nutrients hours before the puking would occur. As for the other aspect of it, the mouth/throat damage due to acid corrosion, could this be in general prevented by downing some pepto bismol or tums before hand? How often can a person safely vomit before suffering health side effects? Once daily? Weekly? Monthly?
Do you really think you are the first person that tried to reinvent the wheel when it came to binging and purging? As stated before seek help. You obviously have body image issues.
Yes, the range of cancers caused from the acid exposure, mostly about the malnourishment. No. The whole point of your stomach is to turn digestible things (like say, meat) into a pulpy paste. Keeping that shit anywhere that isn't your stomach with intact stomach lining is bad for you. Pepto Bismol will not help. This is a little bit like asking how often can you stick your dick in a blender before suffering health side effects. The answer is 'Seek help, for fuck sake'. Of course, given that this is the same general group of respondents that gives people advice on how Opiates are a good time with a very mellow high but a rough come down - there is some irony in our collective level of appall at your stupidity. One of the weird pieces of advice on food that has stuck with me most was 'Treat food as a drug, consuming it might be necessary for you to survive, but if you use it recreationaly, understand that there will be nasty side effects.' But really, binge and purging is just ludicrously bad for you. lacing your cakes with a laxative however, only moderately bad with you.
I know this is question has been answered, but to simply echo a bit of what Schootah said, back when I wrestled in high school (152 lbs. my senior year), I could lose up to 6-7 "pounds" in one day or even 10+ over two. I say "pounds" because I was never really losing a lot of actual body mass, just water. This was even after dropping down from 170 lbs. over a couple of months. So, a bigger person could very feasibly lose a bunch more than I did. It was extremely unhealthy. After doing that, I don't recommend to any athletes to cut weight like that. It's just fucking stupid and not worth it at all. On a side note, I do wonder what the show contestants do after weigh-ins...
I just want to add a second question to the Biggest Loser weight loss. I watched a couple seasons (I want Jillian Michaels, don't care if her face is kinda weird) and I get that the first week is mostly water loss. The first week the contestants lose a ton of weight and the next couple of weeks they still lose but around 4-7 pounds instead of 20. Then they will have another huge week where they lose like 10-15. Where wrestlers would lose weight in a day and then put it right back on, these people continue to go down week after week and even have some large losses later on. How do they continue this if it is not water loss and is this even remotely healthy?
Remember that the show is a contest and a numbers game. So while these people are trying to lose weight - they're also trying to manipulate the numbers to win the cash at the end of the show, and stay in the free crash weight loss clinic for as long as possible. There's a lot of strategy about the game that some of the former contestants have talked about regarding how they regulate their weight loss during the show. The most common means is to water load when they're confident of not being eliminated - IE before they go for the weigh in - they chug as much water as they can hold to decrease their weight loss figure for that week (while still not being eliminated) so that the next week if they're feeling at risk of getting the door - they can have a huge water shed prior to the weigh in. There's also discussion of psych ploys and sleeper weight shedders who manipulate their numbers as part of a mind game with opponents. And water loading and crash shedding isn't healthy by any means. But it's not nearly as unhealthy as dropping 2lbs of body mass a day for 12 weeks.
Think of the body as an engine that adapts to the demands being placed on it. When the diet remains consistent, the stress of changing demands is minimized. Individually, water loading forces the body to change how energy is metabolized and crash shedding places incredible strain on the body. Combined these practices force the body to drastically alter energy production and specifically the kidneys and liver are most affected. While it won't instantly kill you, these practices result in very poor health the longer they are used.
Just an update Seeing as how you "scientists" seemed so sure that it was a bad idea, i went ahead and tested this method Guinea pig style on myself. So far it's working wonders and i've dropped down to 147 lbs. Given the average volume of stomach juices with the typical pH and a little stoichiometry, based on the amounts of calcium carbonate in extra strength tums i deduced that it would be necessary to have 21 of them for a good pH balanced puke. For the past 5 days i've been waking up, eating some terribly unhealthy shit... then tums... then hurl, followed by my normal bowl of breakfast cereal. Later i'll have a light lunch and normal dinner. In the late evening i'll typically have a 235g bag of salt and vinegar chips and maybe some cookies or other pastry, and then purge shortly thereafter. I've been continuing to workout on a regular basis and have lost about 12 lbs in a relatively short amount of time. I've also been making sure to brush my teeth extra good, just to stay on the safe side. So far i look and feel great, i think if i keep this up i'll be amazing looking in no time.
Your body is trying to cope with both Water Poisoning and Dehydration in a very short period. That puts a hell of a strain on your kidneys and pancreas and both conditions can be potentially fatal if you don't get your shedding/re-hydration schedules right. You know what else helps you stay skinny? Crack. I bet after three days of trying that you won't have seen any major side effects either. Idiot. I don't know if you're a troll or a moron. But either way - I hope you get throat cancer.
A quicker more natural way to lose 7% of your body weight is draining your own blood. I suggest opening a vein and sitting in a nice long hot bath.
You'll have better luck if you use cold water. Stand under the shower and hold your arm above your head. Cut your arm from your wrist to your inner elbow, then lower your arm. Repeat if necessary.