I have to disagree with that, I thought she was every bit as good, if not better that the Broadway version. Eponine was the other stand out singer, played by Samantha Barks. Barks also played Eponine in the 25th anniversary concert edition of Les Miserables.
For a little bit (maybe one year?) the Academy nominated a solid ten films. Then they realized no one really gives that much of a shit about the 7th-10th best films of the year, and now they've just got the option of a 10-pic slate if enough films get nominated on the ballots. I do share your Moonrise Kingdom love, though. I haven't started my deluge of movie watching yet, so I have no idea how Amy Adams was in The Master, but actresses don't keep showing up on these lists by accident (this is her fourth nomination, and she got absolutely robbed for Doubt in 2009) The Academy loves her, and if there is any Hathaway backlash Adams should be right there to benefit. I'm still a Hathaway fan, though, so it's not like I'm actively cheering against her.
All five nominees in the Supporting Actor category have already won Oscars. I was shocked DiCaprio didn't get the nod. And Bigelow, Affleck AND Tarantino don't get nominated for best director are you fucking kindding me
Just got back from seeing Zero Dark Thirty. I like Jessica Chastain. I like her a lot. A whole lot. I think she's a great actress and she even makes my wiener tingle. And that's even with the fact that she was in that terrible Terrence Malick film that I refuse to mention by name ever again. All that said? I was not impressed by her role as BlackOps Barbie in this movie. I thought her performance was all over the place. It probably has more to do with the script and editing, but it just wasn't that good.
Re: Re: 85th (2012) Academy Awards Speculation Thread I walked out of that turd of a movie, made it almost half way through, I didn't get her performance at all. I have to see Cosmopolis and Argo yet, Argo looks good, the other......
Lincoln. The odds on Lincoln winning make it not even worth betting. Spielberg for Lincoln. Just another year in which Best Picture and Director go together. If Affleck had been nominated for this, I would have picked Argo for BP and Affleck for Director. DDL is a fucking lock. He will be the first to ever get three best actor trophies. I still haven't seen either movie of the two front runners here, but I'm going with Lawrence over Chastain. From the many reviews I've read, they did about an equally good job, but Lawrence's character was more a more complete person. Plus, Hollywood loves a brash, beautiful, talented 22 year old actress with damn near no filter in interviews. I like Waltz, but he basically played the same character he won for in Inglorious Basterds. A gleeful German who kills a lot of people (just, this time it was almost anti-racist). So I'm going with PSH. People loved The Master, and since Joaqin can't beat DDL, this will be the bone for that movie. Hathaway is a lock. By a mile.
In fairness, I saw the whole movie, so I'm admittedly biased . . . but, SLP could not be defined as a "complete romantic comedy schlock" by any stretch. There's certainly some comedy an romance in it, but this is NOT "When Harry Met Sally." That said, I believe you are correct: Bradley Cooper won't win, and it will likely be Daniel Day-Lewis. Which brings me to my next comment. I saw Lincoln this weekend, and I didn't think it was that great. I thought DDL was very good. Lincoln will probably win, because the strongest part of that film was the acting - and the largest percentage of Oscar voters are actors. But, I wasn't that impressed with the narrative and imagery, and thought Spielberg has done much better. James Spader was the highlight of the movie for me, but everyone else seemed to caught up in "Watch me act!" and "See how I talk like I'm in the 1860's!" Argo is the only other Best Picture contender I've seen thus far, and I thought Affleck did a better job of placing the viewer in an historical event.
I just got back from watching Silver Linings Playbook an hour ago. Some thoughts: First, Jennifer Lawrence was so much better than presumptive frontrunner Jessica Chastain that I started wondering if this might be one of the weaker years for Best Actress since I started following the Oscars about 15 years ago. Because honestly, as great as Lawrence was in SLP, I'm not sure it's even better than what she pulled off in Winter's Bone a few years ago. And that's not even a slam, because I can say the exact same thing about Chastain when you compare ZDT to some of her more recent works as well. Add into the mix three other nominees whose possess interesting qualifiers - Riva is really old, Wallis is really young, Watts is the only one nominated for a movie that didn't get a Best Picture nod even with an inflated slate - this year's Best Actress might end up being a complete surprise. Secondly, the best thing I can say about Bradley Cooper is that he did a great impression of Mark Wahlberg. I don't know if it was the accent or the Philadelphia Eagles connection, but I couldn't help but wonder if the role was adapted with Marky Mark in mind. (David O. Russell directed him in The Fighter.) I can comfortably say that Cooper is the one guy who can honestly say he is just honored to be nominated. Third, both Robert DeNiro and Jacki Weaver were admirable in their roles as Cooper's parents, though DeNiro more so for some pretty obvious reasons if you've seen the film. Best Supporting Actress appears to be a foregone conclusion (Hathaway) and the tea leaves for Best Supporting Actor seem to indicated Tommy Lee Jones will ride the Lincoln wave to a second Oscar. However, based on what I know of the five performances DeNiro is the one closest to playing out of type, which could tip a wide-open category in his favor if the voters want to get sentimental in a "who cares?" category that features five previous Oscar winners. (It's also been a little longer since DeNiro's last Oscar win than it was for Meryl Streep last year, if that matters.) Lastly, the best thing going for SLP is the current nostalgia for a movie featuring a beleaguered president is that SLP should be a lock for Best Adapted Screenplay if voters want to give it the traditional boobie prize for not winning Best Picture. However, Russell is known to be kind of an asshole in the industry, and if you think that doesn't matter to the non-acting Academy voters then Paul T. Anderson might just kick you in the nuts. EDIT: HOLY SHIT HOLY SHIT HOLY SHIT! I honestly had no idea. I've been so far out of the loop on movies the past year because of my job, this is literally the first I've heard of this. God damn, I knew it wasn't a coincidence. <a class="postlink" href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/18/mark-wahlberg-david-o-russell-fight_n_1017445.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/1 ... 17445.html</a>
I saw Silver Linings Playbook a few weeks ago and, while I was surprised that it got as many nominations as it did, I still thought I was going to enjoy it since it seemed like my kind of movie. Holy crap, I did not like it whatsoever. I may have even hated it, but I like Jennifer Lawrence so much and don't want to hurt her feelings. I hated the writing. I think it was one of the worst screenplays of any movie that was actually trying to be good, and I'm really upset that it got the screenplay nomination. The plot was so scattered and I couldn't find sympathy for any of the characters. I found it almost offensive to people with mental illness. It sounded like stories I used to write when I was 14 and trying to be edgy and writing about crazy people. I'm surprised at all the acting nominations, but I guess they did well with what they were given and anyone would have sounded stupid saying some of the lines they were written. Basically, what I'm saying is, if it wins for best adapted screenplay, I will kill myself.
So after a nice little bout with the flu, I've managed to see every major Oscar nominated movie this year, excepting Amour (which I'll hopefully watch tonight) and The Master. On the whole, great year for good movies, bad year for great movies. Here's my analysis of the categories: Best Picture: With nothing to really stand in its way, it's looking like Lincoln will have the Oscar giftwrapped to them. A few things in particular going for them: it's an election year so politics is on the mind, it features the best performance of the year in Daniel Day-Lewis's, script was great, etc. I thought Argo was also fantastic and could in theory make a run here. In my opinion, Django Unchained was the best movie of the year, but zero chance that nabs top prize. Will win: Lincoln Could win: Argo Best Director: Worth noting that Best Picture usually goes hand in hand with Best Director (I think it's deviated twice in the past 15 or so years), so this is probably going to Spielberg. But what Ang Lee did with Life of Pi was phenomenal - the most visually-stunning movie I've seen in years. Will win: Spielberg Could win: Ang Lee Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis. End of story. I was particularly impressed with Bradley Cooper in Silver Linings Playbook, but thought the praise for Hugh Jackman in Les Mis was a bit overblown. But it doesn't matter, because they don't stand a chance. Will win: Day-Lewis Could win: Nobody else Best Actress: I loved Silver Linings Playbook. Probably my second favorite movie of the year behind Django, and Jennifer Lawerence was a large part of that. She was excellent - witty, biting, angry, sad - and she deserves the win. I'm not sure where the fuss is over Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty - to me, the real sleeper here is Quvenzhane Wallis in Beasts of Southern Wild. The kid was like 6 years old and portrayed a stronger woman than just about everyone this year (by the way, Benh Zietlin's ability to coax such a powerful performance out of a Kindergartner got him the nod over Affleck for Best Director). Will win: Lawrence Could win: Wallis Best Supporting Actor: No idea here - it might as well be a five horse race. I have yet to see The Master so I can't comment on Hoffman, although he might be the frontrunner. But I'm having a hard time separating the good-but-not-fantastic performances of De Niro, Jones, Waltz, and Arkin. My favorite was Christoph Waltz, but the fact that he basically played a more sympathetic Hans Landa hurts him here. I thought De Niro played the OCD character well, but should he win when he was the third-best performance in that movie? Arkin was funny, but not particularly memorable for me in Argo. Tommy Lee Jones played crotchety-Tommy Lee to a tee here, hasn't won an Oscar in 20 years, and could get swept up in the Lincoln-fervor. But really, who knows. Will win: Tommy Lee Jones? Could win: Philip Seymour Hoffman Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway hands down. I thought Les Mis kind of sucked, but good god that five minute close up scene of just Anne Hathaway was incredible. No one else here comes close. Will win: Hathaway Could win: Nobody else Best Adapted Screenplay: This is an interesting one. Best Adapted is usually seen as the "runner-up" for Best Picture, so to me, it's between Silver Linings or Argo. But Lincoln's script was fantastic, so it could double dip here. Will win: Lincoln Could win: Argo Best Original Screenplay: Another interesting one. I haven't seen Amour, which could improbably take this. To me, Django is the standout here amongst the other 4, but giving Tarentino an Oscar always feels like a last resort. Will win: Django Unchained Could win: Amour Best Animated: This is always my favorite category, and I'll pout like an 8 year old if Wreck-It Ralph doesn't win it. It looked terrible, but it was awesome - probably the funniest movie of the year. Brave kind of sucked, and I admitedly haven't seeen Frankenweenie, not that I would anyway. Will win: Wreck-It Ralph Could win: Brave
It seems to have happened just as often in the past 13 years since 2000 (Soderbergh, Polanski, and Lee) than it did in the previous 20 from 1980 on (Spielberg, Stone, and Beatty). Odds are the two will go hand in hand, but always check to see who wins the DGA award. That's the one pre-Oscar lock to put money on. Word. Lawrence's character gave us lonely, self-loathing, loving, feisty, and a slew of other emotions all wrapped up in a seamless performance. Chastain seemed to give still-life performances: each scene she played a different version of her character. It just felt disjointed and she didn't connect with the viewer the same way Lawrence did. Eh, apples and oranges. He's not competing with those leads. And I will continue to believe that her turn as Catwoman in The Dark Knight Rises is what will put her over the top in voters' minds. . Either screenplay category has been a good place to reward movies that aren't going to win Best Picture (one of them obviously won't), and Best Picture has also won a writing award seven of the last nine years. That's a lot more common than it had been in the 80s and 90s, so I'm less likely to assume that a different film will take these awards this year.
Good point. With that, I'd put my money on Lincoln to take Best Adapted then. By the way, saw Amour last night. It's one of those rare movies where you watch it thinking "I know this is a great movie... but I still hate it." It's PAINFULLY slow, although I guess that's kind of the point (old age and whatnot). Riva was fantastic, but still probably the third best actress behind Lawrence and Quvenzhane Wallis. Affleck got robbed a nomination in favor of Haneke in my opinion. The only Oscars implication--besides Amour's obvious win for Best Foreign--is for Best Original Screenplay, which I would be shocked if it won. If it was a merit vote (which it rarely is), I would hope that it went to Django. But who knows with "nigger" being said something like 100+ times. Moonrise Kingdom could possibly win it as well. Just please not Zero Dark Thirty.
I just finished watching Beasts of the Southern Wild on DVD. Some thoughts: - Quvenzhané Wallis did a fantastic job for a 6 yr old actress in her first ever role, but I think this movie was also custom-built for a kid without a whole lot of speaking parts. If you want to watch a toddler bust out some real acting chops, go watch Dakota Fanning in I Am Sam. I would be awfully surprised if Wallis gets more votes than Lawrence, Chastain, or Watts. Kid actor nominations tend to be rewards in and of themselves, with the most notable exception being Anna Paquin (who was paired up with Best Actress Holly Hunter). If Abigail Breslin couldn't win for Little Miss Sunshine, Wallis shouldn't win for this film. - That said, I do think Benh Zeitlin deserves the nod for Best Director because working with a kid actor in almost every scene of a movie is a pretty tough haul, to say nothing of the rest of the amateur cast and low budget. He's not going to win, but credit is certainly due here.
Here are the SAG winners: MOVIES Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln Actress: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook Supporting actor: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln Supporting actress: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables Cast: Argo Good win for Lawrence here.
For what it's worth, Argo essentially won Best Picture for the PGA (Producers Guild Award) last weekend, which has recently been a good predictor of the eventual Oscar winner (5 for the last 5). In addition to Argo's SAG Best Ensemble win - which is surprising to be honest as acting wasn't a particular strength of Argo's - we could have an upset in the making. Not to say I agree with it, and the fact that Affleck got snubbed for a Best Director nomination is still fairly indicative, but I'd say Best Picture is a coin flip with Lincoln right now. If the DGA (Directors) improbably gives the directing win to Affleck in a couple weeks, all bets are off. If it goes to Spielberg, Lincoln might still have it.
I'll leave this here for the Ann(e) fans. The girl is from my hometown and has been in such movies as The Collection, Social Network, and In Time. I found it quite funny. I apologize if some feel it doesn't belong in this thread.
If memory serves correctly, I think only one other film has ever won Best Picture without having a nominee for Best Director: Driving Miss Daisy.* On the other hand, I do see that the DGA has no problem rewarding directors that didn't get Oscar nods: <a class="postlink" href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Directors_Guild_of_America_Award_for_Outstanding_Directing_%E2%80%93_Feature_Film" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Directors_ ... ature_Film</a> *EDIT: Apparently it happened a couple of times way back in the 1930s, too. Ancient history aside, DMD is the only modern film to win a Best Picture sans Best Director nominee.
<a class="postlink" href="http://apnews.myway.com/article/20130203/DA4725G80.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://apnews.myway.com/article/20130203/DA4725G80.html</a> Interesting.
With one notable exception, I've finally caught up on all the major Oscar nominees. Discussion below Best Supporting Actress: The only major nominee I haven't watched and probably won't before Sunday is Les Miserables, partly because A) I don't generally like films adapted from stage plays, and B) this film is teetering on the line between sincere appreciation and total backlash. Anne Hathaway has won every meaningful precursor award to date and is a true Hollywood starlet perfectly situated in time and place to ascend into the select sorority of Oscar princesses that can truly headline moneymaking films. And even though I don't personally believe "singing = acting" (see: Jennifer Hudson), in this case Hathaway has already proven her chops and getting the AMPAS stamp of approval for a role like this seems an easy pill to swallow. As for the other nominees, Helen Hunt already owns one more Academy Award than she deserves: rest assured she's not going to go two-for-one with this role. Jacki Weaver is the hard answer to a future trivia question, but unfortunately hers is also the least memorable performance of that ensemble. Sally Field was delightfully nuts in Lincoln, and Amy Adams is racking up nominations en route to an eventual win in the future (along with Michelle Williams), but this category has been locked up for some time now. Should win: Anne Hathaway won't be the first actress to earn an Oscar for a role that's not even as good as her previous roles. Besides, I still think she should have been considered for The Dark Knight Rises. Could win: Many people who really like The Master seem to think Amy Adams gave the most impressive performance of the film. But "many people" in this case probably numbers in the dozens, because The Master is kind of a bore. Will win: I hear Anne Hathaway is kind of an asshole in real life, but she's really good at playing humble on stage. Her acceptance speech may be an even better acting performance than what she did in Les Miserables...but I still don't care to watch it. Best Supporting Actor: After some consideration, I think this category is going to be the most fascinating of the night. As has already been mentioned before, this is the first time in Oscar history that all five nominees in a category are previous winners. Three of them (Christolph Waltz, Philip Seymour Hoffman, and Alan Arkin) have won Oscars in the past decade. Tommy Lee Jones won his about 20 years ago, and for those who thought it had been a long time since Meryl Streep won an award should be interested to know that it's been even longer since Robert DeNiro last took home a statue. Should win: Strictly speaking, Hoffman gave the most complete and nuanced performance of the five. But that's to be expected since it was essentially the lead role. Could win: Jones' character was the embodiment of the anti-slavery sentiment of Lincoln for voters so inclined to reward the film for something along those lines. And even though his performance was as Jones-ish as Arkin and Waltz were Arkin-ish and Waltz-ish, the latter two's more recent Oscar wins give Jones the edge in a battle of nostalgia. Will win: Robert DeNiro's career can basically be cut in half over the past 30 years, culminating in a nomination for a supporting role in a romantic dramedy. Voters who can't stomach sitting through The Master should appreciate how subtlety DeNiro deals with OCD in Silver Linings Playbook. Plus, the appeal of hearing DeNiro's name called for the first time in 32 years just one year after Streep won 29 years since her last Oscar is (ironically) not lost in this field. Best Actress: Any discussion about this year's field should begin with the caveat that all things considered, this is as weak a slate as we've seen in some time. The fact that Quvenzhane Wallis could crack the top 5 is evidence enough of that. Similarly, even though I really wanted to give Naomi Watts some love for The Impossible, the fact is she only spends about 25% of the movie doing anything of note. She spends another quarter laid up in a hospital bed, and the other half of the movie she's not even on the screen. Emmanuelle Riva hits all the right notes in Amour, but foreign language roles usually have to be doubly extraordinary to win. Jessica Chastain shouldn't suffer any personal backlash for the politically toxic Zero Dark Thirty, but Jennifer Lawrence has been kicking her ass lately in award shows leading up to the Oscar ballot deadline this week. Should win: One review of Silver Linings Playbook I read put it best: without Lawrence, the entire movie is just people yelling at each other. She really did elevate the entire movie into something worth watching. Could win: Amour is a lock to win Best Foreign Picture and is the surprising favorite to win Best Original Screenplay at the moment as well. That certainly doesn't hurt Emmanuelle Riva's chances. Will win: Jennifer Lawrence is rightfully peaking at the right time, though history should note that in most other years she might not have even been nominated. I just hope nobody stamps an asterisk on her statue a la Barry Bond's home run ball. Best Actor: How do you think Marky Mark feels about Bradley Cooper being nominated for doing a Marky Mark impression? Because if you've seen the movie, you know that is a FACT. Like I said, I didn't see Les Miserables so I don't know if Hugh Jackman was any good or not. But this year? Doesn't matter anyway. Denzel Washington managed to play an even bigger asshole in Flight than he did in Training Day, which is incredible in and of itself. But if you want to pick a winner, you ultimately have to choose between Daniel Day-Lewis and Joaquin Phoenix. Should win: Joaquin Phoenix gets the slight edge on Daniel Day-Lewis because of the degree of difficultly. By that I mean sitting through The Master is far more difficult than sitting through the remarkably better Lincoln. But make no mistake about it, Phoenix's chops are just as good as Day-Lewis head to head. If I had a ballot, I'd happily vote for Joaquin. Could win: This is a two-man race, although Denzel Washington only helped to cement his legacy with Flight. Will win: Better movie + iconic character = first three-time Best Actor in Oscar history. DDL FTW. Best Original Screenplay: The only thing standing between an Oscar for Amour is the fact that it's a lock to win Best Foreign Picture. Zero Dark Thirty is no longer a viable Best Picture runner-up, which reduces it's chances. Most of what makes Flight great has nothing to do with the script. Moonrise Kingdom is the most delightful movie I've seen in a long, long time and if it wins I will shit my pants. Will win: Raise your hand if you realized that Django Unchained was 165 minutes long? I know, right? That's how well the script worked. Flight and MK aren't nominated for Best Picture, and no one is dying to reward Bush/Cheney by giving ZDT a win here. If voters choose to let Amour walk away with the other boobie prize, Tarantino should walk away with a second Oscar this weekend. Best Adapted Screenplay: The only guarantee here is that Beasts of the Southern Wild won't win. Argo and Lincoln are 1-2 favorites for Best Picture, so common sense says one or the other should win this prize as well. However, Silver Linings Playbook and Life of Pi are both adapted from traditional source material, which can be both a blessing and a curse. This is the hardest category to predict. Will win: My gut tells me voters are going to want to ensure Argo walks away with a major win just to satisfy the #BestDirectorBenAffleck crowd. With DDL a heavy favorite to win for the titular role as President Lincoln himself - and the recent controversy surrounding Lincoln's 13th Amendment voting accuracy - there is enough reason to suspect voters won't feel the need to overly reward the film. But...Argo is the frontrunner for BP, which greatly helps Lincoln's chances, so consider this category a bona fide tossup. Best Director: I'll spare you the discussion: Lincoln is the best film nominated in this category, so Steven Spielberg should make modern history by winning a second Oscar for a film that won't win Best Picture. (Of course, Ang Lee could also set the same record.) Best Picture: Ben Affleck's directing snub was the best thing to happen to Argo, which is a more enjoyable film than the otherwise well-crafted Lincoln. Will win: Argo, which also has a decent chance of becoming a film that wins a single Oscar for Best Picture.