2011 NFL Season

Peyton is out for the year. If he comes back, its pointless. He's out for at least 6, he'll be pushing it then, and he won't be 100%. The teams spirit will be broken by then, and the team will realize Caldwell is useless. Might as well tank the season and get Andrew Luck. They have no hope.

Weird fucking thing is I'm rooting for McNabb to have one last hurrah, but he's still number 5. He should have ditched that number, it does nothing for him. Ray Rice won't play that well again against the Steelers and the Steelers won't do that bad against the Ravens again. They were due, and thats it (bullshit cliche.) Actually, I bet the Steelers went in there with too much swag and got punched in the mouth early, didn't recover.

Watching Oakland vs Denver is watching two retarded kids in a fight. Highly entertaining but you still feel bad you watched it.

 

I want the last 3 1/2 hours of my life back. This is what I waited all spring and summer for? To watch this?

Gonna be a fun year.

 

Hey, ballsack, how about that Kyle Orton, huh? Yeah, he's so good. Lemme tell you something, my lovely sack of scrotum. Tim Tebow is teh futah. Yes, my friend kyle orton ain't no daisy at all. Lemme tell you my friend, you're my friend. You may red dot me and say mean things , but I know deep down, you love me and deep down you want timmy in and around your mouth,, like me.

It's part of the zionist conspiracy. .

<3 you sack.

 

how dare you good sir. i am no cow. orton is the cow.

 

Now Dolphin fans have no clue what to do. We were told this whole offseason that Henne was the problem and it was all his fault that we've sucked since Marino retired.

Now Brady wipes his ass with our entire defense and Henne looks improved. Some bad penalties, some questionable play calling (especially in the red zone) and some guys on defense that thought they were better than they are cost us the 10th home loss out of the last 11 home games. And yes I know the Steelers have won more games in Sun Life Stadium than the Dolphins over the past 1+ seasons.

What disturbed me is that with the Pats line missing 3 starters and our offense supposedly kicking up the tempo to wear out Willfork and Haynesworth, it was the Fins defense that was cramping up and sitting out plays. They got no pressure on Brady and still can't cover a tight end.

Now I know why I got those season tickets in a good spot for so cheap!

 

Brady played out of his mind last night, so it's easy to overlook that Henne was 30/49 for 416 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT. Show me a quarterback (other than Brady) who wouldn't happily take that stat line every week.

Fun fact: despite everything Brady did last night, Miami still "won" the time of possession 31:33 to 28:27.

 

In light of the not-so-insignificant amount of action TEs around the league saw this past weekend, I thought I'd dig up this very interesting article I read a while back. I'll paste the core of the article here.

Keep in mind: this article is 3 1/2 years old. I think we're slowly starting to see this little theory take hold.

 

Tough to take ESPN's Total QB rating seriously when Ryan Fitzpatrick has the best score in a week where Brady threw for 500yds and 4TDs.

Granted, Fitzpatrick also has the highest rating under the old system too, and Brady is actually 4th there, as opposed to 3rd in ESPN's rating. But still, come on. Brady threw almost twice as many passes, completed more throws than Fitzpatrick even attempted, had a comparable completion % to Fitzpatrick's, got 500 yards compared to Fitz's 208. Each had 1 sack. You're telling me one pick in a game like that sends Brady all the way down to 3rd on the list? Just further proof that ESPN wanted to recycle an old idea and slap its name on it.

Though Kerry Collins is ranked slightly below a tackling dummy, so I guess they got that right.

 

I'm not sure how you can shit on ESPN's new QBR when the guy you're defending did worse under the old rating system.

Everything in the QBR is weighted, including the situation where an INT/TD/etc. occur. For that reason, you won't see someone with a high QBR rating when he's throwing garbage time TD's or running up the score. Did Brady have an outstanding game? No question. But he was picked off, Miami scored two plays later and tied the game. All of that comes into play when determining QBR.

Fitzpatrick didn't throw for 500 yards and didn't toy with a gassed defense like Brady did, but he did toss 4 touchdowns, no picks, and did with fewer opportunities (attempts in this case). That says "better performance" to me. I think people are being blinded by that fact that the game was nationally televised, that it was Tom Brady, and that nobody ever hits 500 yards in a game.

 

I think we can all agree that Brady had the best game in the opening week, but the point of QB ratings are to show how effective a player is being on a per pass basis. By that metric, then yeah Fitzpatrick had the better game, even if we know he didn't play better. A system can't reward a QB for taking more pass attempts because it doesn't show at all how well the QB is playing and you would need separate rating systems for games, seasons, and careers. Keep in mind too that QBs who throw over 300 yards only average about a 50/50 win record. The reason is you're often throwing that much because your team is down. So the system is right in that teams would rather have a QB throwing 180 yards and 3tds rather than one throwing 400 yards, 3tds and 3 picks.

Besides, at the end of the season we'll see the best QBs at the top of the rating list and Fitzpatrick will likely be nowhere near it.

 

Because we're morons.

 

The old system overrates TD passes, which is why Fitzpatrick is so high up. I guess the new system does too? I'm really not convinced that passing for touchdowns is the best measure of a QB. Is it better for the team? Yeah. But it's much more a function of field position, running after the catch, and that sort of thing. If I had to pick between TDs and completion percentage, I'd go with the latter for pure robotic precision.

And that interception by Brady, when you look at it, isn't really his fault. He throws a screen pass, and his receiver gets hit by a CB who was blocked into him, ball goes flying. But there's no stat that reflects that.

edit: Given the expectations, I agree that Cam Newton had an absolutely great game.

 

Guys please go read about the new QBR before you talk about it. It takes almost 4x things into consideration. This isn't entirely accurate, but for example sake, a 3 and 1, with 5 seconds left in the 4th and a team down by 4 being converted with a pass...is going to be weighted heavier than a 1st and 10 being converted with a pass when the team is up by 21 and there is 10 left in the 2nd. Read about the QBR before commenting on it. The short of it is that it is heavily situational.

 

I read about the new QBR when it came out and I don't think I (or anyone on this board for that matter) fully understands how it works. It's supposed to be better because it's more complicated and factors in more variables, but sometimes it's just better to keep it simple stupid. For example, the new rating gives bonuses to players who do better in 'clutch' situations. Is this really a good thing? Also, if anyone has a more detailed explanation of how clutch factors in I'd like to see the link. So let's say a QB is throwing a hail mary from the 50 as time expires when his team is down by four. Whether the pass is completed has almost nothing to do with the QB, he's just hoping his star receiver can make a play. Should it hurt his rating more when it's picked, and boost his rating more when it's completed as opposed to other 50 yard tds? Probably not. Also, let's say a QB is down by four again at this own 20 yard line with 30 seconds to go. Should a pick hurt him more here because it's not 'clutch'? I don't think it should as your only chance to come back in that spot is to take risks. Of course picks are more likely, and I'd rather have the QB taking risks in that spot.

Also, the whole way the new system approaches YAC has me skeptical. They say that YAC has much more to do with the receiver, but I'm not totally convinced. If a QB hits his receiver in stride the receiver has a much higher potential for YAC, and while sometimes YAC is a result of broken tackles, it can also be a result of a QB throwing to the right guy.

Ok, last point because I'm starting to ramble and this post is getting long. Is a QB really better if he is clutch at the end of a game as opposed to a QB who played well all game and didn't need to be clutch? Or if two QBs have equal numbers, should their rating be affected by how well their defense is playing since one QB is in a close game and the other is winning a blow out?

The new rating system is more complicated, I'm not so sure yet that it's actually better. I'm also not a total believer that it's absorbing as much information as effectively as it claims to be. It's a fucking stat, it's not like the QBR is sitting there watching the game.

 

Re:

I'm not saying its right or wrong, just saying people should read up on what its trying to do, which is different than the current QBR. That's all I'm saying.

 

I was amused by the Steve Smith fervor after that first game. In my work league, he was placed on the trade block and I was in discussion with a coworker about trading him straight up for one of my backup RBs, and then after Sunday, this clown tried to package him with Matt F'ing Cassell for Arian Foster and another player.