As Pittsburgh fans, my friends and I have been having an email discussion about these two articles by Jason Stark and Ken Rosenthal. In short, Scott Boras and a few others are claiming every MLB team basically has $70-80mil in revenue before they even sell a ticket (let alone parking passes, concessions, etc) yet they continue to have payrolls from $30-40mil. Representatives of the owners say the teams only make 20-30% of that figure, quite a large discrepancy. I really don't pay attention much to the business side of the sport, but it still seems laughable that the Pirates cannot afford a larger payroll and still make a respectable profit. I'm not very inclined to take someone like Boras at his word though, so I was wondering what some people thought of the figures being thrown around. Which side seems to be telling the truth? Also, what do you think of some of the solutions being proposed like more transparency of revenues, a spending floor, etc?
I think any team that takes state money should be forced to be completely transparent about how much they're making and how much they're spending. As a baseball fan I'm sick and tired of the seasons being "all but over" for many of these teams before the first pitch is ever thrown. Yes team owners have the right to make money, large sums of money, but the fact that they're essentially treating the revenue sharing as a form of welfare is disgusting. I spend quite a bit of time near Pittsburgh for work and even though it's a football town there are some hardcore baseball fans there. Sure every game isn't a sell out but it's a far cry from having a mere thousand and change that the Marlins attract some games. If a team isn't spending at least 75% of the money they're getting through revenue sharing the league should look into replacing the owner, or cutting the amount of money the team is receiving the next year.
Speaking of Mauer (so pumped he won the MVP), a very reliable source close to the Mauer family has said that Mauer has already signed a huge contract extension with the Twins and they're just waiting to make it public. From what I was told, the contract is very "front heavy" and packed with incentives. He compared the contract to KG's T'Wolves contract from back in the day. He wasn't sure on years or exact dollar amounts though. I know this isn't confirmed but I trust the source it's coming from.
He's a great player and a definite must have since they're opening a new ball park but I've heard numbers tossed around indicating he'll eat up more than 40% of their available salary. Yikes. It puts mid-market team in a tough spot when one player commands that much of the team's budget. I was really hoping for either Mauer or Pujols to make it to free agency. Sounds like I'll have to hold out hopes for Big Al. Rumors running rampant that the Red Sox are discussing a trade of Buchholz and prospect Casey Kelly for Halladay. Kelly is considered the number one prospect in the Sox farm system right now for what it's worth. I definitely value Halladay over Lackey but I hate the idea of trading Buchholz.
Yeah, I hear you on the 40% of the budget part, but I think that's why they front loaded it too, as a "just in case" measure. The one thing about Mauer is, he was born and raised in St. Paul. He is treated like God here. I'm not over exaggerating. He could probably murder someone in plain daylight and get off just fine. (ok, that's an exaggeration) The new stadium coming next year (which looks absolutely amazing) was paid with state money. If they were to NOT resign Mauer and lose him to FA, there would be a mutiny against the Pohlad family. Mauer is the Golden Boy and Minnesota's favorite son, if they were to lose him because they wouldn't pay him enough, when the stadium was paid for with our tax dollars, shit would hit the fan, hard. I heard about the Halladay thing this morning on a local radio station here. That would be interesting, that's for sure. Trading Halladay to an in-division team, ballsy move for the Jays. However, from what you said, it seems like they would get a decent amount in Buchholz and Kelly. I can't really say I know much about Kelly though so I'll take your word for it, but I know Clay is pretty solid on the mound everytime I see him. To add to what DrinksOnTheHouse said earlier, the voters have been good this year, and haven't done anything stupid. Refreshing.
Roy H told the jays they have to either trade him by spring training or not at all. I can't blame him I'm sure that was distracting last year. He should go to Philly, he would look great in red! He has a no-trade clause so he can control the trade, I hope he leaves toronto it would be nice to see him in the post season for a change.
Fuck the Yankees. I do not like that Granderson went to the Yankees. As much of that is because how much he's done in and around Detroit as it is what he's done on the field. Not to mention it's the Yankees. I don't like when anyone goes there. Gotta let this sink in a bit..
Fantastic trade. Middle relievers are the most readily replaceable commodity in baseball, and Ian Kennedy wasn't ever really that good. Austin Jackson has decent potential, but there's essentially no chance that he's going to be better than Granderson. Who is under 30. And cheaply under team control for the next 4 years. For Detroit, Max Scherzer>Edwin Jackson. And they get some decent pieces for Granderson. This trade is really only bad for Arizona.
That remains to be seen. Scherzer had a 4.1 ERA in the NL. Admittedly, that's about all I know about him at this point. Scherzer is only a year younger than Jackson too. Jackson had 3.5, even with his god awful second half. If he can get some stamina and put together even a decent second half he could be really good. Especially in the NL. This could be a great trade (from a baseball standpoint; we'll still miss granderson the person) if these guys turn out to be as good as they're projected.
Scherzer has a 3.79 career FIP, and a Bill James projected 3.58 FIP in 10. Jackson has a career 4.72 FIP with a Bill James projected 4.72. Jackson's problems aren't really stamina related, he just had a career low BABIP last year, especially in the first half, when that started to even out, his season started to suck. The move to the NL will help Jackson, and the move to the AL will hurt Scherzer, even going to Comerica Park. Going into next year I'd rather have Scherzer, and I think most people would say the same thing. More importantly, I'd suggest doing some research instead of just throwing out ERA and other useless stats. Check out fangraphs.com and similar sites.
His BB/9, K/BB, HR/9, WHIP, all flipped a switch in the second half of the season, and consequently so did his ERA. His BABIP didn't level out simply because there's an average BABIP that everyone must have. It was because he started pitching poorly that it came up. There's no reason that I can see that he shouldn't be able to keep his stats where they were in the first half of the season. Maybe it was stamina related, or maybe the league figured him out. In any event, these issues can be corrected. If Jackson can come to the mound and make adjustments to hitters the way Porcello did in the second half, he can keep hitters off balance and his BABIP will stay low, and he'll have a very good season.
What do you think about the pick up in rumors that the Phillies are going after Halladay again? I would much rather have had him on the team during the WS last year (as well as Lee), since Cole Hamels absolutely killed the Phils. According to the Philly Inquirer, an offer to combat the Angels would be: It seems like Halladay's value has dropped since last year's trade deadline if there are no minor league pitchers in the mix like Drybeck. I think a 1-2 rotation of Lee/Halladay would be incredible, even though going late into the playoffs three years in a row would be grueling on the rest of the staff.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?n1=jacksed01&year=2009&t=p#month I am right. I have stats to prove it. While it may be stamina related to a point, the main culprit of Jackson's second half let down was his BABIP normalizing to where it has been for his career. Where did I say that? His BABIP leveled out to where it had been for his entire career. Every pitcher is different. Some have unusually high BABIP, some unusually low. Do you have any information to back this up? Everything out there says that while Jackson might have turned the corner as a pitcher, his talent level lies closer to his second half than his first half. The league figured him out? Edwin Jackson isn't Porcello. He's pitched 160 innings in the AL for the past 3 years. It's not like he started throwing a knuckle ball either he's throwing the same pitches in similar amounts he always has. Porcello proves my argument Notice his higher BABIP in June and July? Also notice how is WHIP climbed, and K/9 drops? Wow that's weird! Just like Edwin Jackson's second half!
People may get better or worse as their career goes on. They don't have to have the same stats every year of their career. Jackson showed some very good stuff in the first half and I don't believe he is necessarily doomed to be as mediocre as he has been the first part of his career. It was, after all, only his third year. The fact that he pitched so dominantly for half a year and faded fast says something. To me it says he wore himself out, not that his luck wore off. What do you attribute his unusually low babip to the first half of the year, if not his pitching skill?
If you're a strike out pitcher in the minor leagues, one would expect their K/9 to stay high in the pro's. While stats may change, trends will stay the same. Jackson wasn't mediocre, he sucked. He went 5-15 in 07 with a FIP of nearly 5. He's turning the corner now. Will he be a great top of the rotation pitcher? Unlikely. Can he be a solid number 3, fringe 2 starter? I believe so. To me it says his luck ran out, and the numbers back me up. Luck. Simply, luck.
07 was his rookie year, and yeah, horrible. Since then he's definitely been serviceable, and as you say at least a good third starter. I think he only stands to improve from here. As for the rest, agree to disagree, I guess. When I look at his first half I see progress, you see luck.
ESPN is reporting that the Phillies are going to acquire Halladay in a 3 team deal with Toronto and Seattle, and they are sending Cliff Lee to Seattle as part of the deal. Cliff Lee's career postseason stats: 5 starts, 40.1 innings, 4-0, 1.56 ERA Halladay's postseason stats: 0 starts, 0 innings, 0-0, NA If I was a Phillies fan, I'd be questioning this one.
Busy day. Lackey to Boston and a possible trade has Halladay going to Philly and Cliff Lee to Seattle http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4742072