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85th (2012) Academy Awards Speculation Thread

Discussion in 'Pop Culture Board' started by El Tee, Dec 5, 2012.

  1. El Tee

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    It's Oscar season, so time to get your spec bets in.

    My first bet? Anne Hathaway for Best Supporting Actress for "The Dark Knight Rises". Watch those early scenes when she has to switch between poor lil' Selina Kyle and who we know to be Catwoman. It's good shit. Really good. Oscar good.

    Tom Hardy might get a nod too, if only because the voiceover was so unconvincing voters will pay attention to the body language instead. Ironically, it depends on how many people watch the movie with a critical eye.
     
  2. audreymonroe

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    Best Picture:
    Beasts of the Southern Wild (Also: screenplay, actress for the little girl, maybe director, cinematography)
    Lincoln (Also: best actor, probably best support actor)
    Zero Dark Thirty (Also: director, maybe acting)
    Argo (Also: director, screenplay)
    Anna Karenina (Also: costumes, cinematography
    Moonrise Kingdon (Also: screenplay, maybe acting)
    Perks of Being a Wallflower
    The Sessions (Also: best actor/actress)
    Les Miserables (Also: costumes, maybe acting)
    Life of Pi (Also: screenplay, effects)

    Movies That Will Probably Get Some Nominations:
    Cosmopolis (haven't seen it, but from what I've heard it sounded kind of Oscar-y: maybe cinematography)
    Dark Knight (at least for effects)
    Cloud Atlas (same with Cosmopolis, haven't seen it but seems Oscar-y: maybe screenplay)
    Silver Linings Playbook (maybe acting)
    The Hobbit (at least for effects)

    Movies That Might Get Nominations:
    Safety Not Guaranteed (might be too under-the-radar for Oscars, but maybe screenplay)
    Seeking a Friend for the end of the World (same as Safety Not Guaranteed)
    Salmon Fishing in the Yemen (Haven't seen it and don't really know how good it was, but it just kind of feels like something the Oscars would acknowledge, you know?)
    Celeste and Jesse Forever (maybe screenplay and/or acting for Rashida)
    On the Road (screenplay, acting, cinematography)
    Smashed (acting, maybe screenplay)

    I am going to guess that Lincoln or Zero Dark Thirty is going to get best picture, mostly because it was an election year. Daniel Day Lewis will probably get best actor. I'm not really sure about the rest of the acting awards - I haven't seen a lot of the ones that are super Oscar-baity (and/or they haven't come out yet). Bigelow will probably get best director due to patriotism. Beasts of the Southern Wild might get some surprise big awards - I'd guess best actress and original screenplay. Maybe Perks for Adapted Screenplay. Anna Karenina's going to get costumes.
     
  3. CharlesJohnson

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    I haven't seen diddly this year. Doesn't look like a particularly fecund year for Oscars. Again. The only ones that are bound to get a nod are Life of Pi, Silver Linings Playbook, and probably The Master. Those reek of Oscar bait. Haven't seen them, in no rush. Not feeling anything this year.

    No, what gets me, as I said last year, is cinematographer Roger Deakins. Look up this guy's resume: <a class="postlink" href="http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0005683/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0005683/</a> . He literally has done everything cool, with everyone cool. 9 f'n nominations, no win. If they don't give him his 10th and a win for Skyfall, someone should firebomb the show. Skyfall was hands down one of the most visually appealing movies I have ever seen. How many movies look like that? The Shanghai and Macau scenes almost made me cry they were so extraordinary. Deakins should have won a few years ago for Assassination of Jesse James, which was the most gorgeously shot movie I've seen, period.
     
  4. El Tee

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    Awards Circuit is listing Anne Hathaway as the frontrunner for Best Supporting Actress, but for Les Miserables.

    They're also listing Matthew McConaughey as a contender for Magic Mike, which means I'll probably have to watch the movie at some point. It would be cool for him to win just to hear him say "Alright alright alright" in his acceptance speech.
     
  5. audreymonroe

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    You know, I was going to joke about Magic Mike getting nominated and decided against it. But if it's actually a contender for any nomination that would be...awesome.
     
  6. bebop007

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    That doesn't really surprise me. I mean, do you think Heath Ledger would have won, let alone been nominated, for the Joker if he hadn't died beforehand? Highly Doubtful.

    Kevin Spacey knocked it out of the park as Lex Luthor in Superman Returns (a meh movie but Spacey gave an amazing performance) and pretty much got nothing in return. It's gonna take a lot for the Academy to give away one of the more serious awards to a lowly (in their view) comic book story.
     
  7. MoreCowbell

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    It feels odd to type this, but Bradley Cooper ought to get a nomination for Silver Lining Playbook.
     
  8. El Tee

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    Have you seen The Dark Knight? Heath Ledger gave one of the most incredible performances in a decade, to say nothing of that single year. He would have won that Oscar, alive, dead, or otherwise. The only difference probably would have been that Robert Downey, Jr. (Tropic Thunder) would have made it a closer race.

    As to your larger point about the Academy seemingly having an issue with comic-book movies, don't make the mistake of lumping Christopher Nolan's Batman films in with shit like Superman Returns, Green Lantern, or The Avengers. You're right in the sense that someone like Downey isn't going to get serious consideration for playing Tony Stark no matter how perfectly he nails it, but Nolan is a serious filmmaker known for things like Memento and Inception...not, say, "Buffy The Vampire Slayer" or stuff like that. I'm not too worried about the Academy overlooking TDKR because of genre.
     
  9. mav_ian

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    Where in the Sam Fuck did you come from? I thought that the Taliban had sunk you or something.



    EDIT: Oh yeah, a focus. Um, didn't see enough, but I'd place my non-existent money on Dark Knight Rises being snubbed unceremoniously for the most part, only Anne Hathaway and maybe Sound Editing, or just Editing. And Best Picture will be something that all of ten people have seen...
     
  10. lust4life

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  11. MoreCowbell

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    I'm not sure that animated film category really need to exist. It looks like they stay so mainstream with it that they end up nominating clearly mediocre movies.

    DeNiro didn't really deserve a Silver Linings Playbook nomination. He was fine, but not especially good. Arkin though... Alan Arkin in Argo is some good shit. I do feel kind of bad that Jackson and Goodman didn't really have a shot due to the strength of Waltz and Arkin.

    I would have been amused if McConaughey had gotten a nomination. Would have at least been interesting.

    Hathaway's Les Mis performance left me entirely underwhelmed. It was cloying, trying too hard Oscar bait, and it worked. I hope Field shows her what's up. In fact, bugger off with that whole movie except Jackman and the girl who played Eponine.

    A lot of love for Amour. I'm inclined to go see it now, along with Beasts of the Southern Wild. Apparently that girl was six when the movie was filmed.
     
  12. El Tee

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    This might be the first time in Oscar history where every nominee in an acting category (Best Supporting Actor) is a previous winner. I'll have to check on that.

    Now that the list is out, I can hit the local moving picture show and hit all the films in the major categories. Based on the buzz going in, Anne Hathaway appears to be the closest thing to a lock in her category.


    EDIT: Whoops, Affleck wasn't nominated.
     
  13. Kubla Kahn

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    Talk about two, never heard of that shit before, nominations. I mean I have literally never heard these two movies mentioned in any of the articles Ive read before today.
     
  14. MoreCowbell

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    If you look at Intrade, almost all of the majors have a single contender with a dominant likelihood of winning. We have Hathaway at 85%, DDL at 82%, Lincoln at 75%, and Spielberg at 75%. Best Actress has a 95% probability of being Lawrence (65%) or Chastain (30%). The "open" major category appears to be Best Supporting Actor (Jones at 50%, Hoffman at 38%, DeNiro at 19%).
     
  15. audreymonroe

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    I wasn't too shabby with my predictions. *Brushes my shoulders off* I thought a bigger variety of movies were going to get recognized, had never heard of Amour until a week ago or so, totally forgot about The Master,and didn't think Django was going to recognized as much more than an action movie or Silver Linings would get as many nominations.

    Hasn't there been 10 nominations for best film for the past few years? I feel like they could've picked another one. Out of my guesses, I think Moonrise Kingdom got the snub. I'm not even that big of an Anderson fan, but I thought it was refreshing and original, and very pretty to look at.

    I really hope Anne Hathaway doesn't get the Oscar. Apparently her backlash has started and people really don't like her, but I'm still a fan of hers and even so I don't think she deserves it. I wasn't a big fan of the movie, and for her whole time she was on screen I was thinking "Jesus Christ, stop trying so damn hard. I can practically see you rehearsing your Oscar speech in your head as you're singing." But, there isn't anyone else that I'm really rooting for in that category so I guess I wouldn't be too upset.

    So these are my guesses:

    Best Picture: Lincoln - again, I'm assuming this for political reasons. I'd like Beasts to win though.
    Actor: Daniel Day Lewis.
    Actress: Probably Chastain. (I don't get her. At all. Do people here like her? In any way? I don't think she's that great of an actress, or likable, or hot. But people seem to love her.) I'd also really like the little girl from Beasts to win, though.
    Supporting Actor: This category always seems to be really close, but I think it would probably be between Hoffman and Waltz.
    Supporting Actress: Probably Hathaway. Bleh.
    Cinematography: Anna Karenina
    Costume Design: Anna Karenina
    Directing: You know, I'm really unsure. I'm surprised Afleck and Bigelow weren't nominated. It'll probably be Spielberg, partially because he hasn't gotten anything in a while (right?). I think Zeitlin deserves it because so many people involved with the movie were amateurs and it's still a great movie - to me that seems like the mark of a good director.
    Adapted Screenplay: I think Argo might get this one.
    Original Screenplay: Maybe this will be Moonlight's award, but I feel like it would probably go to something like Zero Dark Thirty or Amour.
     
  16. MoreCowbell

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    Word is that Bigelow's non-nomination is a largely political objection to the movie's perceived cozy attitude towards torture during the War on Terror.
     
  17. CharlesJohnson

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    Pretty predictable, underwhelming list. My honkey Roger Deakins got his 10th nod. I will enjoy watching him lose again, most likely to Life of Pi. Shit. Kind of feel bad for Affleck too. Never thought I'd say that.

    I want Bradley Cooper to win so bad. Why? Because:

    "This summer... from Academy Award Nominee Todd Phillips and Academy Award Winner Bradley Cooper... The Hangover III."

    Awesome.
     
  18. Durbanite

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    Based on the very underwhelming movie trailer for Silver Linings Playbook that I saw (which makes me think it's largely a romantic comedy, and please correct me if I am wrong) and reading the brief plot synopsis on Wikipedia, I don't think Bradley Cooper will get the Oscar. The movie sounds like complete romantic comedy schlock and those movies (made in their hundreds) are not usually favoured by AMPAS. Also, Cooper is in the same category as Denzel Washington AND Daniel Day-Lewis, who both have strong acting ability.

    I'll put up my picks, but I haven't been to the cinema in 2+ years, due to escalating costs:

    Best Picture: Argo - I hadn't even heard of this movie before now, but, based on the subject matter, I think it has a strong chance.
    Best Director: Steven Spielberg - obvious; Hollywood has been in love with him for almost 4 decades.
    Best Actor: Denzel Washington - he should've been nominated for Man On Fire due to it being a memorable performance and character, but wasn't. He deserves this one due to the largely high standard of his work over the last decade.
    Best Actress: Naomi Watts - playing a non-fictional character and a geological event that stunned the world as a backdrop? Winner.
    Best Supporting Actor: Alan Arkin - I really want to see Argo now...
    Best Supporting Actress: Sally Field - any other pick here would be folly.
    Best Original Screenplay: Amour
    Best Adapted Screenplay: Argo. Like someone else before me said, election year.
    Best Original Score: Either Desplat (Argo) or Williams (Lincoln) - too hard to choose.
    Best Sound Editing: Argo.
    Best Sound Mixing: Life Of Pi. It has to get something, right?
    Best Production Design: Les Miserables
    Best Cinematography: Skyfall. Please?
    Best Make-up: The Hobbit.
    Best Costume Design: Les Miserables
    Best Film Editing: Lincoln
    Best Visual Effects: The Hobbit
     
  19. MoreCowbell

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    Well there you have it, folks. Picks from the guy who saw the trailers and read the Wikipedia pages.
     
  20. Crown Royal

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    Until I see Zero Dark Thirty, my personal pick for best picture is Cosmopolis for best picture and David Cronenberg for best director. John Hawkes for best actor... I always liked him a character actor, I NEVER saw him getting this kind of attention. Remember when he was the convenience store clerk that shot for shit at the beginning of From Dusk 'till Dawn?

    Ben Affleck has truly thumbed his nose in the face of past naysayers back when he was a shitty, obnoxious actor. Now he's a director who can't make less than a great movie, and gives himself great parts in them as well.