Trump's angling for another Nobel Peace Prize obviously. Plus he gets to brag about another war he stopped.
Keep in mind the inherent fragility of the Iranian government, with the religious leader in charge ancient. Their succession plan is a nightmare for US interests, because thanks to Ukraine getting left to Russia (abandoning the deproliferation agreement from ...1996 I think?) and the weird tolerance of the North Korean state (assumed to have stolen/acquired Russian nukes, Russians wouldn't confirm because fuck you, so the nukes keep the Kim regimen in place and the Chinese as apologists, because they would happily buy the NK nukes to piss off US interests and obfuscate their own stockpiles), a weak Iranian successor could turn to the nuclear program away from the treaties with the US to ensure enough of a nuclear threat to be safe from a "regime change". This handled poorly would wipe out any US progress post-Afghanistan (hell, post 2015) in the region and kick off a series of conflicts that make the War on Terror debacle of the Bush years look like deft diplomacy. This is a major inflection point for Trump's handlers and US politicians, because they will have to wager if the incoming Iranians believe him and will work with him, or if they believe he's about to croak, get impeached or whatever. If the Iranians view Trump as weak, it's explosive. And the few people who can slow him down are going to answer to history about how they proceed. I'd put it as the highest ranking person that doesn't spend 7 hours a day on Twitter is going to be put in some very uncomfortable binds about a Commander in Chief in Trump's state, much less with the nightmare of intelligence leaks, political toxicity, and clear evidence on how he can be reliably manipulated. The Iranians need to be considered a nuclear power, because they are about to do everything in their power to be exactly that, and that gets into some VERY uncomfortable scenarios for us. And I think this is a move that Netanyahu didn't feel confident taking alone, and that is fucking astounding. Doing joint operations with Israel loses so much for the US it's genuinely baffling why we agreed to it, until you consider the CinC. This is going to be a tense few months....
Trump is now saying Khamenei is dead, but unclear if he's relying on the Israeli assessment or if there is a separate US assessment.
If he's dead it doesn't change a damn thing for the better. It will probably make things worse. I don't understand why people cannot learn from history.
I guess I’m naive but isn’t there a chance that removal of an oppressive religious leader is a good thing? Haven’t many of the Iranian people been wanting this for years? I assume your concern is that this opportunity will be botched leading to another unstable Middle Eastern country. It seems like you and ‘dirty know more about this than I do, so please elaborate. And no, I’m not being sarcastic.
It's great that they killed a dirt bag, but the IRGC isn't going to just give up and another oppressive religious leader will be given control. Even if they try the whole occupation thing like they did in Iraq and Afghanistan it will go poorly just like it did in those countries as religious nuts, particularly in Islam, don't just go away.
Yeah, my primary concern is that we have no exit strategy or end goals, and we’re in another 17 year war/occupation, like you noted.
Just because Ayatollah Assaholla* is dead doesn't mean that all the Islamic extremists are gone. If Trump died tomorrow, do you think all the MAGA retards' brains would magically reset? If Putin died tomorrow, do you think the oppressive Russian regime would just give the power back to the people? Yes, many Iranians wanted the Ayatollah gone, just like many Americans want Trump gone, and just like many Russians want Putin gone. But the power structures are still in place. You can see this on a smaller scale with the Mexican cartels. One boss gets whacked, and another takes his place. *Anyone get that?
Coincidentally, I’m in Washington DC this weekend. We found ourselves in the midst of a pro USA, ant Islamic regime Iranian demonstration. They were very enthusiastic about current developments.